The Race for No. 1 Explodes: Jannik Sinner’s Hidden Ranking Advantage Could End Alcaraz’s Throne in 2026.NN
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner dominated the 2025 season, with the former finishing at the ATP Year-End No. 1. However, Sinner defeated Alcaraz to defend the ATP Finals title on Sunday, November 16, keeping his rival on his toes in the rankings ahead of the 2026 season.
Sinner kicked off the 2025 season as the World No. 1 and extended his lead over No. 3 Alcaraz by winning the Australian Open. However, the Italian missed out on the action for three months due to a doping ban suspension, and lost his No. 1 crown after his US Open final defeat against the Spaniard.
Carlos Alcaraz extended his lead in the rankings by winning the Japan Open, his eighth title in 2025. He entered the season-ending event in Turin as the top seed and secured the Year-End No. 1 title after qualifying for the semifinals. However, Sinner’s triumph in Turin has left Alcaraz with a narrow 550-point lead going into the 2026 season. So, when can Jannik Sinner regain the No. 1 rankings in 2026? Let’s see early 2026 projections:
Alcaraz will maintain his top ranking regardless of the result at the 2026 Australian Open, starting on January 12. As the defending champion, Sinner cannot earn points in the first major of the season, and Alcaraz can earn a maximum of 1600 points, having won 400 after his quarterfinal exit in the same event in 2024.
However, due to his suspension, Sinner missed three months of action after winning his Grand Slam title in Melbourne, leaving Alcaraz to gain ground with his wins in Rotterdam and Monte Carlo, as well as a runner-up finish in Barcelona. So, Sinner is not defending any points till early May in 2026, and can close the gap to Alcaraz significantly, starting from Rotterdam, one of the first ATP 500 events, on February 8.
Carlos Alcaraz made it to the quarterfinals of Doha (starting on February 16), another ATP 500 event, and finished as a semifinalist in Indian Wells (starting on March 4 in 2026), the first Masters 1000 of the season. Jannik Sinner can target a high finish in these three early tournaments in 2026 to regain the World No. 1 rankings from Carlos Alcaraz.
Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner to miss Davis Cup action
After winning a combined 14 titles on the tour this season, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are set for a long break. Neither player is competing in the Davis Cup Finals 2025, starting on Thursday, November 18, in Bologna, Italy, and is expected to be next seen on court in January next year.
The top-ranked Italian withdrew from the home tournament to focus on early preparations for the 2026 ATP season. Meanwhile, Carlos Alcaraz was part of the Spanish team but withdrew due to a swelling on his right hamstring. The World No. 1 shared news through an Instagram post on Tuesday, November 18, saying sorry to his fans.
Notably, Italy are the two-time defending champions and are facing Austria in the Davis Cup quarterfinals.
