Chicago, October 29, 2025 – The Chicago Cubs’ 2025 was a tantalizing tease: 92 wins, an NLDS berth, and a young core flashing brilliance from Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 30-30 magic to Cade Horton’s rookie arm. But as the dust settles from a Game 5 heartbreak to Milwaukee, one name dominates the offseason debate: Matt Shaw. The 23-year-old third baseman erupted in his first full season (.285 average, .380 OBP, .520 slugging, 22 homers, 3.1 WAR), earning a Gold Glove nod for +12 DRS and anchoring an infield that ranked top-5 in turns. Yet, with Kyle Tucker’s $427M free-agent exodus looming and shortstop Dansby Swanson’s .244 slump, whispers of trading Shaw for a big-name bat like Alex Bregman or Matt Chapman grow louder. “Matt’s the real deal—don’t touch him,” manager Craig Counsell warned. But is Shaw the against-the-grain prospect to build around, or trade bait for 2026 glory? Cubs Nation, the choice looms large.
Shaw’s Meteoric Rise: From Draft Gem to Defensive Dynamo
Drafted 13th overall in 2022 from Maryland, Shaw was a polished college bat with power potential and a cannon arm. His 2024 Triple-A tune-up (.265/.345/.440, 20 HRs with Iowa) screamed readiness, but 2025 was revelation: 148 games, 22 HRs, 78 RBIs, and a 112 wRC+ that ranked him top-5 among third basemen under 25. His .380 OBP and 18% K-rate showed plate mastery, while his defense dazzled—85th-percentile arm strength and highlight-reel dives saving 12 runs. “Matt’s not a rookie—he’s a revelation,” Counsell gushed post-NLDS, crediting his “bat-to-ball wizardry and infield IQ.”
Key highlights: A walk-off homer vs. the Brewers on July 4 and a 4-for-5, 2-HR explosion in the Wild Card clincher vs. San Diego. On X, #ShawToTheMoon trended: “Gold Glove arm, 22 bombs—Matt’s our third base forever!” one fan thread hit 12K likes.
The Trade Temptation: Instant Impact vs. Long-Term Gold
The Cubs’ 92-70 run masked cracks: 18th in runs (4.27 per game), Swanson’s slump (.244, 1.2 WAR), and Tucker’s void (4.5 fWAR). Trading Shaw could net Bregman (free agent, .290/.372/.512, 3.1 WAR, $25M AAV) or Chapman (opt-out, .275/.345/.505, 3.5 WAR, $20M AAV)—proven vets for playoff pop. “Shaw’s promising, but Bregman’s battle-tested,” ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted, sparking 8K replies. Hoyer’s history—flipping prospects for stars like Tucker—fuels the fire.
Yet, Shaw’s upside screams hold: Arb-eligible at $2M in 2026, control through 2030, and ZiPS projecting .290/.370/.510, 28 HRs, and 4.0 WAR by 2027. “He’s the against-the-grain guy—raw, but ready,” a scout told The Athletic. Trading him risks mortgaging the future for a rental.
| Option | Pros | Cons | Projected 2026 WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keep Shaw | Cheap control, 3.1+ WAR upside | Inexperience in October | 3.5 |
| Trade for Bregman | Instant 3.1 WAR, playoff pedigree | $25M AAV, age 32 | 3.0 |
| Trade for Chapman | Elite glove ( +15 DRS), 3.5 WAR | $20M AAV, injury history | 3.2 |
Counsell’s Stance: “Matt’s Our Guy – For the Long Haul”
Counsell’s October 28 Marquee interview cut through the noise: “Matt Shaw is our third baseman for the next 8–10 years. We don’t need to shop—he’s the answer.” It countered a September slump (.240 in 20 games) that fueled trade buzz. “He’s 23, hits .285 with power, fields like a vacuum,” Counsell added. “Big names? We’ve got one in-house.”
Shaw echoed: “Craig’s faith means the world. I’m not chasing headlines—I’m chasing rings.” His leadership—mentoring Pomeranz, leading drills during Acuña’s injury—earned trust. Still, the debate rages: Shaw’s .520 SLG is solid, but his 18% K-rate lags Bregman’s polish.
The Verdict: Resist the Trade Urge – Shaw’s the Future
Shaw’s the long-term answer: Affordable, ascending, and aligned with Hoyer’s youth movement (Crow-Armstrong, Horton). A Bregman/Chaplain splash accelerates 2026, but trading Shaw risks the 2030 core. Fans on X split: “Shaw’s our guy—#ShawToTheMoon!” vs. “Bregman now, rings tomorrow!” Cubs Nation, the crossroads calls: Shaw’s arm is steady, but is it championship-caliber yet?
