THE PERFECT GEOGRAPHIC FIT: VALDEZ VS. THE WRIGLEY WINDS
CHICAGO, IL—In the high-stakes chess match of the 2026 MLB offseason, one name has emerged as the “mathematical soulmate” for Wrigley Field: Framber Valdez.
As of December 18, 2025, the buzz surrounding Valdez signing with the Chicago Cubs has reached a fever pitch. Analysts, including ESPN’s David Schoenfield, are increasingly projecting the former Astros ace to land on the North Side on a six-year, $168 million contract. The logic is simple: In a stadium where “the wind blowing out” can turn a fly ball into a nightmare, the Cubs need a pitcher who refuses to let the ball leave the dirt.
WHY VALDEZ IS “UNSTOPPABLE” IN CHICAGO
Valdez isn’t just a pitcher; he is the most prolific ground-ball specialist of his generation. For a Cubs team that just finished the 2025 season with the best defense in baseball, he is a tactical nuclear weapon.
- The Ground Ball King: Valdez led the majors again in 2025 with a ground-ball rate north of 60%. At Wrigley, where the park factor for home runs can spike by 20% on a windy day, Valdez’s ability to keep the ball out of the air makes him “weather-proof.”
- The Infield “Wall”: Valdez would be pitching in front of an infield that features three Gold Glove finalists from 2025: Nico Hoerner (Winner), Dansby Swanson, and rookie sensation Matt Shaw.
- The Durability Factor: After throwing 190.1 innings in 2025, Valdez provides the “innings eating” stability that the Cubs lacked when Justin Steele went down with an elbow injury last April.
BY THE NUMBERS: THE VALDEZ EFFECT
| Metric | 2025 Stats (Astros) | Why it fits the Cubs |
| Ground Ball % | 61.2% | Neutralizes Wrigley’s “Wind Out” days. |
| ERA | 3.66 | Solidifies the #1 spot ahead of Cade Horton. |
| Postseason Exp. | 17 Career Starts | The “Playoff Ace” Chicago desperately needs. |
| Projected Deal | 6 Years / $168M | Fits within Jed Hoyer’s $22M payroll “cushion.” |
THE 2026 “DIVISION-WINNING” ROTATION?
If the Cubs pull the trigger on Valdez, they instantly transform a “good” rotation into the class of the NL Central:
- Framber Valdez (LHP) – The Ace
- Cade Horton (RHP) – The Sophomore Sensation (2.67 ERA in ’25)
- Matthew Boyd (LHP) – The 2025 All-Star Anchor
- Jameson Taillon (RHP) – The Veteran Stabilizer
- Justin Steele (LHP) – Returning from IL in mid-2026
THE VERDICT: IS HE THE ACE TO WIN THE DIVISION?
The Cubs finished 2025 with 92 wins, falling just short to the Brewers in a five-game NLDS heartbreaker. The post-mortem on that series was clear: the Cubs lacked a “hand-the-ball-to-him” ace for Game 1.
“Valdez doesn’t just win you games in July; he wins you games in October,” one NL executive noted. “With that defense behind him, he could legitimately post a sub-3.00 ERA in Chicago. It’s the smartest move the Cubs could make.”
