The Toronto Blue Jays made the biggest signing of the offseason so far on the day before Thanksgiving, inking star pitcher Dylan Cease to a massive seven-year, $210 million deal.
It’s a huge move for the defending American League champs, who are staying aggressive this winter after coming up just short in the World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
While Cease is unquestionably a good pitcher who makes Toronto’s loaded rotation even better, did he really deserve all that money?
Cease Joins Richest Pitchers in MLB History
Cease’s contract is the largest free-agent deal in Blue Jays history, surpassing their six-year, $150 million pact with George Springer. It’s also the most money they’ve ever spent on a pitcher, though it still pales in comparison to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s historic extension.
Cease is now one of the highest-paid pitchers in baseball history. Among MLB pitchers all-time, his contract ranks seventh in average annual value ($30 million) and fifth in total value.
That’s a lot for a guy who’s never made an All-Star team and is 29-32 with a 4.18 ERA over the last three seasons combined. He’s also never won a playoff start and has an 8.74 ERA in the postseason.
Cease has been durable, making at least 32 starts in five straight seasons. He’s been inconsistent, however, with his ERA fluctuating by at least a run in all five of those years, ranging from 2.20 to 4.58.
That’s a huge difference. Cease has had exactly one season in his seven year career where he pitched like an ace, and that was in 2022. Since then, his ERA is over four.
And yet, he’s getting ace-level money even though he’s heading into his age-30 season.
Will Cease Be Worth It?
Cease is making more on an annual basis than Max Fried and Garrett Crochet, both of whom signed big deals within the last calendar year. Both are better and more consistent than Cease, however, and Crochet is several years younger.
In terms of performance and stability, Cease is more comparable to Blake Snell than most of the game’s highest-paid pitchers. Snell’s been more injury-prone, but he’s also a two-time Cy Young winner and ERA champion. He got five years and $137 million from the Dodgers last winter — a bit more in annual value but much less total value than Cease.
Cease is arguably the top pitcher on the free agent market this winter, so he was likely to be overpaid regardless of who signed him. Toronto has one of the highest payrolls in baseball, so clearly it can afford him.
The Blue Jays already had a pretty good rotation, however, so they didn’t really need Cease. That money might have been better spent elsewhere, like on re-signing Bo Bichette or addressing other needs.
Ultimately, they won’t care how much they’re paying Cease if he helps them win a championship. He hasn’t proven he can do that yet, but that’s an expensive risk they’re willing to take.
