FAILING TO LEARN: Dodgers Will Try (and Fail) to Sign Kyle Tucker by Using Old Bryce Harper Approach.vc

(LOS ANGELES) — The Los Angeles Dodgers may be the reigning back-to-back World Series champions, but their strategy to land the top free agent on the market, outfielder Kyle Tucker, is heading toward inevitable failure. Insider reports suggest the Dodgers are employing the exact strategy that cost them Bryce Harper in 2019: prioritizing a high average annual value (AAV) on a shorter-term deal over the long-term commitment that Tucker is guaranteed to demand.

While the Dodgers are widely predicted to be Tucker’s destination, their attempt to apply this old formula to the new $400 million superstar is viewed by analysts as a fundamental misreading of the current free-agent landscape.

The Flawed Strategy: High AAV, Short-Term

Sources indicate that while the Dodgers are deeply interested in Tucker to fill their corner outfield hole, their proposal is likely centered on a “high-dollar, shorter-term deal.”

• The Harper Precedent: In 2019, the Dodgers reportedly offered Bryce Harper a four-year, $180 million contract, featuring a record $45$ million AAV. Harper, seeking security, ultimately chose the Philadelphia Phillies’ 13-year, $330 million commitment.
• The Tucker Reality: Tucker, who turns 29 in January, is entering the prime of his career. He is seeking a deal in the 10-to-11 year, $400 million range. While he would shatter the AAV record on a short deal, the security of a long-term guarantee from a team like the Yankees or Blue Jays will almost certainly outweigh the Dodgers’ offer.

“There’s basically no way that Tucker doesn’t get a long-term contract offer—a decade is certainly not out of the question,” noted one MLB insider. “The Dodgers’ attempts to sign him [with a short-term strategy] could be DOA.”

Security Over Flexibility

President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman has famously preferred financial and roster flexibility, avoiding commitments that extend too far into the future. This strategy has allowed the Dodgers to manage the competitive balance tax (CBT) while constantly remaining contenders.

However, the post-Ohtani market, combined with the pending 2026 collective bargaining negotiations, has made long-term security the primary driver for elite players. Tucker, who has battled fluky injuries recently, is highly unlikely to pass up a decade-long guarantee to re-enter the free-agent uncertainty at age 33.

The Dodgers’ short-term approach to Kyle Tucker is less about maximizing their chances of signing him and more about “keeping teams honest” in the market, a strategy that often results in the player signing elsewhere for the long-term guarantee they desire.