The Lions are on the brink of a move that could hand Dak Prescott and the Cowboys a Thursday night advantage they won’t forgive.QQ
The Dallas Cowboys have a clear advantage over the Detroit Lions.
The Dallas Cowboys are 3.5-point underdogs entering their Week 14 matchup against the Detroit Lions, but they have a clear advantage. Health.
The Lions are really banged up ahead of Thursday Night Football. This is a team that could be down multiple starting offensive linemen, star tight end Sam LaPorta, and elite wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. And those who play, could be banged up.
But it’s an injury on the defensive side of the ball that seems like the one the Cowboys can really take advantage of, especially if the Lions make a mistake game-plan wise that it sounds like they will make. More on that later. But I’m talking about starting cornerback Terrion Arnold was placed on Injured Reserve.
The Cowboys could have a cornerback competition starting…The Cowboys could have a cornerback competition starting…
Now, not only is Arnold the Lions’ best cornerback, but the Lions run man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL, per Sports Info Solutions. And when they do, they have the second-highest success rate. But it’s tough to do that when you’re down your top cornerback and you’ve got the best WR duo in football coming to town.
George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb are two of the best wide receivers in football and you would expect the Lions to tone down their man coverage calls. However, A to Z Sports Detroit’s Mike Payton doesn’t see that happening.
Lions expert expects Detroit to keep playing man coverage and to blitz more
“I do expect the Lions to continue to play man coverage,” Payton said. “But Lions DC Kelvin Sheppard said there is going to be some schematic changes to what the Lions do in terms of pass rush this week. I don’t know if that means they look to change to more of a press look. What I expect is an increase in safety blitzes and blitzes altogether. That’s just based on some of the changes they’ve made and had success with in the past.”
Though I don’t doubt for one second Payton is right about the Lions’ likely gameplan, I think it would be a major mistake for Detroit to do that against Prescott’s offense on two levels. Number one, Dak is the third-best quarterback against the blitz in success rate, per SIS. He owns the second-highest PFF passing grade against the blitz, only behind Matthew Stafford.
Prescott is fresh off of a game in which he bested Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo’s exotic blitzes even after throwing a pick in the first series. You don’t want to come after Prescott with blitzes—where he’s been successful his entire career.
Secondly, if you’re running press man against Pickens and Lamb, you will likely get in trouble. Even when doubling one of these two, the Cowboys offense is being successful through at least one of them.
The Cowboys have a tough test against the Lions in many areas but this appears to be one where they’ll have a significant advantage.
