The Dodgers’ record Díaz deal just rewired the bullpen landscape, and Cleveland may be forced to react with its own pitching decision.NL

nhat long2 days ago

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When it comes to bullpen arms, the market just shifted in a big way-and the Los Angeles Dodgers are the ones who pushed it forward. On Tuesday, the Dodgers locked in free agent closer Edwin Díaz on a three-year, $69 million deal.

That’s not just a headline-grabbing number-it’s a record-setter. At $23 million annually, Díaz now owns the highest average annual value (AAV) ever for a reliever.

This is the kind of deal that doesn’t just make waves-it resets the tide. And for teams like the Cleveland Guardians, it raises the stakes in a big way.

Díaz Sets the Bar-Again

Now, to be clear, this isn’t Díaz’s first massive payday. His previous deal with the Mets was worth $102 million over five years. But this new contract with the Dodgers carries a higher AAV, and that’s the figure agents and front offices will be staring at when the next wave of elite bullpen arms hits the market.

Díaz, a nine-year veteran, brings 253 career saves to Los Angeles. He’s not just a proven closer-he’s one of the most dominant in the game when healthy. And while his resume stands on its own, the ripple effects of this deal are already being felt around the league.

Cleveland’s Quiet Star: Cade Smith

Let’s bring this back to Cleveland, where the Guardians have quietly found a gem in Cade Smith. With Emmanuel Clase sidelined due to a sports betting investigation, Smith stepped into the closer role and didn’t flinch. He’s not just filling in-he’s thriving.

Since making his debut at the start of the 2024 season, Smith has struck out 35.1% of the batters he’s faced. That’s not just good-that’s elite.

In fact, it’s the seventh-best strikeout rate in the league during that span. And after taking over closing duties mid-season, he racked up 13 saves to close out the year.

Here’s the kicker: Smith is still pre-arbitration. That means he’s making league minimum money for now.

But that won’t last long. Saves are a powerful stat when it comes to arbitration hearings, and if Smith keeps locking down games the way he has, he’s going to get paid-one way or another.

Díaz’s Deal Changes the Equation

This is where things get tricky for Cleveland. The Guardians are known for their savvy front office and budget-conscious roster construction. They’re masters at identifying talent early, developing it, and-when necessary-moving on before the price tag gets too high.

It’s a model that’s kept them competitive without spending like the big-market clubs. But with Díaz’s new deal now setting the top of the market, the cost of keeping a high-leverage reliever just went up.

That’s especially relevant if the Guardians are considering a long-term extension for Smith to buy out his arbitration years. The comps just got a whole lot more expensive.

To be fair, Díaz and Smith aren’t in the same tier-yet. Díaz has nearly a decade of dominance and a mountain of saves.

Smith is still early in his career with just two seasons under his belt. But the potential is there, and the trajectory is pointing up.

If Smith continues to miss bats at this rate, he’s going to command serious money down the line.

What Comes Next?

The Guardians have a decision to make. Do they try to lock up Smith now, before his arbitration numbers climb? Or do they ride it out, knowing that their history suggests they might eventually trade him before he hits free agency in 2029?

It’s worth noting: Cleveland has done this dance before. They’ve let go of stars at the right time, often drawing criticism only to be proven right later. But Smith’s value-both on the mound and in the trade market-will only grow if he continues on this path.

For now, the Guardians have a high-upside closer on a budget-friendly deal. That’s a win in any front office’s book. But Díaz’s deal is a flashing neon sign: elite bullpen arms are getting paid, and the price of doing business just went up.