The Astros could be forced into a full payroll blow-up if a specific Kyle Tucker contract scenario becomes reality. DD
The Houston Astros and Kyle Tucker would seem an unlikely marriage at this point, and this proposed contract scenario seems fantastical.
During the hot stove league of Major League Baseball, anything is possible — Even Kyle Tucker returning to the Houston Astros.
Houston traded Tucker to the Chicago Cubs last offseason for outfielder Cam Smith, infielder Isaac Paredes and pitcher Hayden Wesneski. The Astros knew Tucker was approaching free agency and they wanted to ensure they got something in return if he bolted.
The Astros have a reputation as a spend-thrift franchise when it comes to external free agents. Closer Josh Hader — who signed a five-year $95 million deal two years ago — is the highest free-agent contract signed by an external free agent during the ownership of Jim Crane. Houston has done a good job of retaining and extending its own stars, but even that ability is waning after losing Alex Bregman last offseason. Tucker is now an external free agent.
But that didn’t stop ClutchPoints from proposing a contract that it considered the “perfect deal” to get Tucker to come back to Houston — 11 years, $415 million. It’s a deal likely to make Crane’s head spin — and a deal that would force the Astros to make critical roster decisions in 2026 and likely beyond.
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ClutchPoints’ breakdown is simple — an average annual value of $37.7 million per year, front-loaded with $42 million per year each of the first six years and then $32 million in each of the final five years. Tucker is likely to get that type of deal on the open market. But there are significant roadblocks to that type of deal in Houston.
First, Astros general manager Dana Brown has already said the franchise may have to get “creative” with payroll, per the Houston Chronicle. There are a variety of reasons for that.
Houston has seven veterans under contract for a total of $169 million, led by Jose Altuve. The Astros have a massive arbitration bill, led by pitcher Hunter Brown and Paredes. That could approach $50 million. Throw in the pre-arbitration players that make less than a million and a Spotrac’s estimate is $218 million before any free agent contract, must less Tucker’s.
The competitive balance tax for 2026 is set for $244 million. Signing Tucker to a front-loaded deal at $42 million in 2026 puts Houston well over the CBT’s first tier before any other moves are made.
It’s a fantastical proposal. Sure, the Astros could do it. But it would blow up their “creative” payroll aims for 2026 and beyond. Brown would likely have to trade away multiple players to take on Tucker’s deal and keep the payroll under the CBT. That doesn’t even account for needs at starting pitcher and infield.
The offseason is the time to dream, and dreaming of a Tucker-Astros reunion is fun. But this proposed contract would feel like a nightmare if it came to pass.
