The $35M Question: Is Sonny Gray Worth the Risk for the Atlanta Braves’ Battered Rotation Depth?.
(ATLANTA) — The Atlanta Braves are facing a crisis of pitching depth after a 2025 season marred by injuries to key starters like AJ Smith-Shawver, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Grant Holmes. While the front office knows it must acquire reinforcements, the rumored target, Cardinals starter Sonny Gray, presents a classic dilemma for GM Alex Anthopoulos: elite value versus staggering cost.
Gray is available because the Cardinals’ President, Chaim Bloom, is openly exploring options to offload big-money contracts. While Gray possesses the experience Atlanta needs, the $35 million owed for 2026 alone is a major deterrent.
The Case FOR Acquiring Sonny Gray (The Value)
Ignoring the salary for a moment, Gray’s value is undeniable, especially for a rotation reeling from instability.
| Metric | Sonny Gray (2025) | Career Average | Impact for Braves |
| Strikeout Rate | $201 \text{ Ks}$ | Strong | Provides the strikeout potential Atlanta craves. |
| Walk Rate | $38 \text{ Walks}$ | Elite | Elite command that limits baserunners; crucial for run prevention. |
| Career ERA | N/A | $3.58$ | Proven track record as a dependable front-to-mid-rotation starter. |
Gray’s performance metrics in 2025—particularly his elite walk, strikeout, whiff, and chase rates—suggest that his $4.28 \text{ ERA}$ was likely inflated by bad luck or defensive issues. He remains one of the best pitchers in the league at controlling the zone and generating swings-and-misses, making him a perfect fit for the backend of the Braves’ rotation.
The Case AGAINST Acquiring Sonny Gray (The Risk)
For Anthopoulos, the risk factors are difficult to ignore:
- The $35 Million Price Tag: This is the overwhelming barrier. For $35 million, the Braves could potentially acquire two reliable starters through free agency or trades, spreading out the risk. AA has been clear that he will not make a deal if the cost hinders “more important additions.”
- Age and Decline: Gray is 36, and while his advanced metrics are good, his $4.28 \text{ ERA}$ suggests a decline in effectiveness. Committing $35 million on a player his age, especially with a potential $30 million club option for 2027, is a risky investment that contradicts the Braves’ usual cost-controlled strategy.
- Acquisition Cost: The Cardinals are not giving him away. Bloom stated they value him “very highly,” meaning the Braves would have to trade valuable prospects—the very asset they need to retain to maintain their long-term competitive window.
The Anthopoulos Decision
The ideal scenario for Atlanta is clear: trade for Sonny Gray, but only if St. Louis agrees to cover at least half of the $35 million salary. This would keep the cost manageable ($17.5M) and align with AA’s philosophy of maximizing value.
If the Cardinals refuse to eat a significant chunk of the contract, the Gray rumor will likely remain just that—a rumor. Gray would be a “nice” addition, but the cost is simply too steep to justify hindering Atlanta’s ability to make other, perhaps more cost-effective, acquisitions needed to shore up the entire pitching staff.
