The numbers say Detroit should win this series, but the A’s are playing better ball of late
The Detroit Tigers are the best team in the American League at 49-30, and the Athletics (32-48) are a club that went 1-20 not that long ago. Since that awful stretch, the A’s have gone 9-8 and hold a 3.95 ERA, which is more representative of the team the Detroit will be facing for three games this week.
In fact, the A’s have been the hotter team over their last ten, going 6-4, while the Tigers have split at 5-5. In that span, the A’s have swept AL Central foes in the Kansas City Royals and lost two of three against the Cleveland Guardians. In the middle of those two series was a four-game split against the Houston Astros.
The Tigers beat the Orioles for one, lost two of three to the Cincinnati Reds, took two of three from the Pittsburgh Pirates at home, then lost two of three to the Tampa Bay Rays on the road. While their record would seem to indicate that they’re the favorites in the AL, the A’s may have a chance in this series based on current trends.
Coming into the series
The Athletics’ greatest attribute is their offense, which is typically hovering around the top-10 in baseball, but in the month of June they rank No. 18 in wRC+ with a 102, which is still a touch better than league average.
On the other hand, Detroit’s offense has kicked things up a notch, holding a 118 wRC+, which ranks then No. 4 in baseball this month. Yet, as we’ve noted a few times, the A’s didn’t really start clicking again until June 5, so let’s compare both team’s offenses since that date.
Detroit is still producing at roughly the same clip, at 116, since June 5, while the A’s have been a touch better, at 105, though the green and gold is still ranked No. 18 while the Tigers move down to No. 8. It’s not a huge difference, and the Tigers still hold the advantage, but the two clubs have been more closely aligned offensively the past couple of weeks.
Pitching matchups
On paper, Tuesday’s matchup of Luis Severino (2-7, 4.42 ERA) vs. Tarik Skubal (8-2, 2.06) would seem to favor Detroit heavily. Not only is there a big discrepancy between the two pitcher’s ERAs, but Skubal has been bringing home wins for his club. The one big caveat here is that Severino has been terrific on the road this season, going 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA across six starts and 38 2/3 innings.
Skubal has been brilliant wherever he’s handed the ball, but he’s been a touch better at home, boasting a 1.88 ERA in eight starts. He’s also undefeated at home, going 6-0. If neither of those trends changes, then this could be a pitcher’s duel.
The biggest factor here could be that Skubal is a left-hander which should see a number of big lefty bats in the A’s lineup on the bench. When the A’s faced Framber Valdez last week, rookie Nick Kurtz was the only lefty in the lineup, while Lawrence Butler and Tyler Soderstrom sat.
On Wednesday, Jacob Lopez (1-4, 4.25 ERA) will take on Jack Flaherty (5-8, 4.83) in another matchup where the overall numbers don’t tell the full story. After his June 8 start against the Chicago Cubs, Flaherty held a 3.41 ERA, but in his two starts since (vs. Reds, @TB), he has allowed 15 earned runs in just seven innings of work.
Lopez has been trending in the opposite direction. In his last three starts, he’s gone 16 innings having given up two runs (one earned) while striking out 23 batters. Earlier this season and in his time with the Tampa Bay Rays, he’d been an up-and-down guy between the big-leagues and the minors, but he’s really starting to establish himself in the A’s rotation of late.
On Thursday, the A’s will be sending out another left-hander, this time Jeffrey Springs (6-5, 4.24 ERA), while the Tigers have not formally announced who will be starting for them. Roster Resource believes that it will be lefty Dietrich Enns, 34, who had been pitching overseas for three seasons before signing on with the Tigers in January. Enns has a 2.89 ERA (2.98 FIP) in 62 1/3 innings in Triple-A.
Springs had a rough beginning to the season, but since May 1, he has a 3.38 ERA (4.18 FIP). He’s also been a better pitcher on the road this season, holding a 3.83 ERA on the year, and plopping him into a more pitcher-friendly atmosphere could lead to good results. In his last outing, against the Guardians, he went a season-high 7 1/3 innings, giving up three hits, one run, and struck out six.
He’s gone at least six innings in eight of his ten starts since the beginning of May, and in one of those he was pulled early due to an injury, while in the other he went five innings. He’s been a stable force in the A’s rotation, even when the team was struggling.
A’s and Tigers to beware of
Riley Greene has been on an absolute tear this month, batting .360 with a .410 OBP, four home runs and 19 RBI. Some of that is thanks to an insanely high BABIP of .479, but Greene is a solid player and is certainly someone for the A’s pitchers to be wary of. Wenceel Pérez isn’t quite up to that same level, but he’d still hitting .293 with a .344 on-base, and his 174 wRC+ this month shouldn’t be taken lightly.
In fact, the Tigers have eight different batters with at least 22 plate appearances this month that have been above league average at the plate. One surprising name that’s not on that list is former No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson, who is batting .175 with a .274 OBP and holds a 64 wRC+. Part of that is due to his low BABIP, which is just .196.
The A’s have a pair of rookies that are getting all of the offensive praise of late, with Jacob Wilson running away with the AL Rookie of the Year award, and Nick Kurtz absolutely demolishing baseballs of late. But Brent Rooker has actually been the A’s best hitter this month according to wRC+ with a 155, cutting his strikeout rate to 16.3%, while walking just over 15% of the time. He’s hitting .308 with a .413 OBP in June.
Just behind him are Wilson (151) and Kurtz (148).
Denzel Clarke has struggled at the plate in the early part of his career, but he’s also a human highlight reel. With the expansive outfield at Comerica Park, there will be more space for him to deliver with the glove.
On paper, the Tigers are the better club. They have the better record, and their ace (and reigning CY Young winner) is starting game one. That said, the A’s pitching has seen a bit of a turnaround of late, and the three guys they’re throwing out there may be able to hold Detroit’s offense just enough to squeak out a series win for the green and gold.
