Paid or traded? Jake Meyers’ status could be the offseason decision that reshapes the roster. DD

TORONTO, CANADA – SEPTEMBER 9: Jake Meyers #6 of the Houston Astros runs to third base against the Toronto Blue Jays at a MLB game at Rogers Centre on September 9, 2025 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Kevin Sousa/Getty Images)Getty Images

What the Houston Astros should do with CF Jake Meyers has been one of the more polarizing topics for the last couple of seasons, now exacerbated by the fact the 29-year old centerfielder is coming off his best statistical season.

Meyers’ value has never been higher, fresh of career highs at the plate that included a .292 AVG, .354 OBP and .727 OPS. Meyers played his usual pristine defense in CF, with 9 Outs Above Average (OAA) despite missing more than 2 months due to a calf injury. 9 OAA in CF was 9th in all of baseball at the position.

With reports that there is significant trade interest in Meyers coming from around the league, the Astros have to decide if they should capitalize on the fact Meyers’ value is at an all-time high or perhaps lock him in as their starting CF for the next 4-5 years. Tyler Stafford suggested on the most recent Crush City Territory podcast that the Astros should offer Meyers a 5-year, $50M deal and secure him as a known and trustworthy defensive commodity in CF.

No one should be debating Meyers’ value defensively, but it is fair to wonder if the newfound success at the plate is sustainable.

There are things to consider with Meyers’ career season offensively:

• His 20 XBH were the fewest he has had in the past 3 seasons, despite his second-highest career AB total
• His 3 HR are the second-fewest of his career, and that includes his rookie season when he only had 146 AB. (he had 343 AB in 2025)
• His strikeout rate from the year before decreased, and his walk rate increased (these are good)
• He stole a career high 16 bases in a career high 21 attempts
• His 2025 numbers .292 AVG .354 OBP .727 OPS are all significantly higher than his career averages (.243 AVG, .307 OBP, .678 OPS)

So it is fair to ask, did Meyers turn a corner at the plate or was this performance an aberration?

If we peel the numbers back a little further, we do see a startling trend that Meyers regressed tremendously after returning from injury. It is possible he was not fully 100%, as evidence by the fact after being on the IL from July 9 to September 6 and then returned to the IL for the same injury September 25. It is also fair to recognize these numbers as being a very small sample size as well.

However, there is a story to be told by his numbers. Meyers was his best in a span of just over 2 months and 209 AB from May – early July when he was injured. In that time, he had 69 hits (good for a .330 AVG), hit all 3 of his HRs, both of this 3Bs, and 11 of his 15 2Bs.

In April, he hit .250 with a .299 OBP and a very Maldy-ish .599 OPS. But after he returned in September it was even worse.

Following his return September 6, Meyers hit .204 with a .271 OBP and .475 OPS. He was 11 for 54 and did not have an extra base hit.

Peeling those numbers back again, Meyers hit drastically better on the road (.350AVG, .422 OBP, .894 OPS, 14 of his 20 XBH in 180 AB) than he did at Daikin Park (.227 AVG, .274 OBP, .538 OPS in 163 AB).

Also, looking at sustainability, the MLB average on BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is usually between .290 – .300. Jake’s good months and struggle months tell two different stories.

In March/April, Meyers’ BABIP was .333, and he hit .250. In May, he had a .367 BABIP and .327 AVG. In June he had a .400 BABIP and hit .333. In July (only 21 AB before injury) his BABIP was .438 and he hit .333. In September, his BABIP was .244 and he had a .204 AVG.

I can understand dismissing September, but what is notable is that Jake had 9 weeks of very high BABIP, which is likely unsustainable. He even had a BABIP above league average the first 5 weeks of the season, when he was struggling.

He also had extreme splits for home/road. Jake had a .296 BABIP at home (in line with MLB averages) and a terrific .400 BABIP on the road.

How do these compare to his career norms? His BABIP for his career at home is .288 (similar to 2025) and on the road is .326 (much lower than 2025).

Unless you feel Jake turned some kind of corner in 2025 and that there is something in his approach or swing that has you convinced he can replicate his best 9 weeks from 2025, the numbers seem to indicate that his 2025 success will be more aberration that sustainable.

With that said, I would be looking for the most value I can get out of Jake Meyers and continue the youth movement in the outfield with the team’s most ready prospects in Jacob Melton and/or Zach Cole joining Cam Smith in the outfield. I certainly would not sign him to any kind of long term deal.

If the Astros cannot extract the value they want from Meyers this offseason, then they can hold him and play him everyday in CF knowing they will have a strong defensive asset in the field and hope his offense doesn’t regress to previous production levels of under .230 AVG and under .300 OBP.

Jake is entering his first year of arbitration and has 3 years of team control remaining. His arbitration estimate per Spotrac for 2026 is $4.5M.

Judgment here: TRADE. Sell high, Mortimer. Always sell high.