Even after the Bears crushed the Eagles, doubt still stalks this team like a shadow refusing to lift. DH
Chances for the Bears making the playoffs are running far lower than for other contenders, even after they dominated a victory over Philadelphia.
The Bears’ surge and upset of Philadelphia seems to have captured the imagination of their fans and some others around the football world.
By and large, though, the Bears are given little chance of doing anything. Doubt remains high that they’ll be around come the end of the wild card round.
At least it’s progress. After they beat Pittsburgh, there were many giving them only about a 50-50 chance at being in the postseason even though they led the division.
Now, the Bears are top seeds in the NFC but their chances of even making the playoffs are rated far less by NFL.com than every other team currently in a seeded position.
Their chances are 76% of being in the playoffs, while the second-seeded Rams are given a 96% chance of being a playoff team even after they lost Sunday to the Panthers. The Eagles are given a 95% chance at the playoffs despite being humbled on their own field by the Bears.
In case you’re counting at home, that’s a 19% better chance than the team seeded first who just gave them a physical beating. The Buccaneers are given an 86% chance of being in the playoffs. Even with Carolina hot on their heels, their chances are 10% better than the Bears’ chances. The Packers are given an 11% better chance being in the playoffs.
At least the Bears are given a chance 34% better than the Lions (42%), after Detroit lost Amon-Ra St. Brown for a few weeks and Frank Ragnow and Sam LaPorta for the season.
NFL.com is hardly the unquestioned registrar of truth in the world, but this attitude toward the Bears looks similar with The Athletic. Their playoff chances calculator sets the Bears’ chances at 72% for the playoffs and only 30% to win the division. They’re given only a 7% chance by The Athletic of winning a playoff game.
The Athletic currently projects the Bears at 11-6 and in the seventh seed for the playoffs. They have the Packers beating them out for the division title at 11-5-1.
The website playoffstatus.com uses a method more in tune with the realities of this season. Their calculations say the Bears have a 90% chance at the playoffs, 8% better than the Packers. They’re given a 57% chance of being around for the divisional playoffs and a 31% chance of making the NFC championship game. Their chance of making the Super Bowl is set at 15% and of winning the whole thing at 8%.
While 90% looks good, they’re given less chance at the playoffs than the team they just beat (Philadelphia, 95%).
From the betting world, at DraftKings on Sunday night, the Bears are +160 to win the division but the Packers are favored at -140.
As for the NFC picture, the Bears (+1600) are given longer odds even than the Lions (+1400) of representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. That’s the 7-5 Lions with key offensive players missing.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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