Drake Baldwin Snubbed for NL Rookie of the Year: Cade Horton’s 22 Starts Overshadow Braves’ Catcher.vc

ATLANTA — The Atlanta Braves’ 2025 season was a gut punch, limping to a 75-84 record and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Amid the wreckage, rookie catcher Drake Baldwin shone as a silver lining, delivering a breakout campaign that positioned him as the franchise’s future backstop. Yet, in a controversial twist, the Sporting News crowned Chicago Cubs pitcher Cade Horton the National League Rookie of the Year (ROTY) for 2025, despite his 22 starts and late-season absence, over Baldwin’s full-season excellence. The decision, announced October 22, 2025, has sparked heated debate, with fans and analysts crying snub, citing Baldwin’s larger sample size and positional scarcity. As the Braves eye a 2026 rebound, Baldwin’s emergence reshapes their roster strategy, while Horton’s win underscores the Cubs’ pitching prowess.

Baldwin’s Breakout: The Everyday Catcher’s Case

Drake Baldwin, a 24-year-old Madison, Wisconsin native and 2022 third-round pick, seized the Braves’ catching job when veteran Sean Murphy faltered with a .223/.298/.367 slash line and oblique strain. Baldwin’s 124 games yielded a .274/.341/.469 line, 19 home runs, 80 RBIs, and a 124 wRC+, per Baseball-Reference. His 2.7 bWAR ranked among the NL’s top rookies, and his defensive metrics—72nd percentile in Blocks Above Average and 67th percentile in Pitch Framing, per Statcast—earned praise for stabilizing a pitching staff that used 46 arms. Baldwin’s durability was unmatched: He played every game from Opening Day, anchoring a lineup that struggled to a .225 RISP average.

His late-season heroics—a .348 average and .738 slugging over the final seven games, all Braves wins—solidified his role as Atlanta’s 2026 starter. With Murphy’s $15M salary and offensive woes, trade rumors swirl, as ATL All Day’s Nick Halden wrote: “If the Braves continue to start Baldwin… it makes sense to save money behind the young starter. Murphy is far too highly paid to be a backup.” A potential deal for Aaron Nola, floated by Halden, could leverage Murphy’s contract for pitching depth, freeing the DH for a power bat.

Horton’s Surge: The Cubs’ Pitching Prodigy

Cade Horton, a 24-year-old Oklahoma product and the Cubs’ 2022 first-rounder, debuted May 10, 2025, and dazzled with a 2.67 ERA, 11-4 record, and 1.09 WHIP over 22 starts and one relief outing, totaling 118 innings. His second-half brilliance—a 1.03 ERA in his final 12 starts, including a 0.77 ERA in his last nine—propelled the Cubs to a 92-70 NL Central title and NLCS run. Horton’s arsenal, featuring a sweeper (.178 BAA) and curveball (.167 BAA), yielded a 97.9% LOB rate, per Statcast, and his 2.1 bWAR trailed only a few rookie pitchers. The Sporting News lauded him as the Cubs’ first ROTY since Kris Bryant, despite an October shoulder tweak that sidelined him.

However, Horton’s 118 innings and 75-pitch caps—designed to protect his arm post-2024 injury—pale against Baldwin’s 446 plate appearances across 124 games. His 3.99 xERA suggests regression risk, unlike Baldwin’s stable .271 xBA, and his five quality starts lag behind 2024 ROTY Paul Skenes’ 11 in 133 innings. Still, Horton’s postseason impact and Chicago’s success gave him a narrative edge, as The Athletic’s Jim Bowden noted: “Pitchers steal the spotlight when teams win.”

The Snub Debate: Sample Size vs. Spotlight

Baldwin’s case seemed ironclad: MLB.com’s September 9 poll gave him 25 first-place votes to Horton’s nine, bolstered by his everyday role and catcher scarcity (last NL catcher ROTY: Buster Posey, 2010). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale emphasized the disparity: “Baldwin has been with Atlanta since Opening Day and has played in 122 games… Horton has pitched just 118 innings in 23 games.” X erupted with Braves fans’ frustration: “Baldwin carried a broken team—Horton’s a half-season pitcher!” one post with 15K likes fumed.

Yet, Horton’s 0.784 WHIP in August and 11 wins swayed voters, amplified by the Cubs’ 92-70 record versus Atlanta’s 75-84 flop. The Sporting News’ Dan Treacy praised Horton’s “excellent regular season,” but critics argue team success skewed the vote, as pitchers often benefit from win-driven narratives. Baldwin’s 122 OPS+ and defensive value arguably outweigh Horton’s 2.1 bWAR, but the Cubs’ playoff glow proved decisive.

Implications for Atlanta: Baldwin’s Rise, Murphy’s Exit?

The snub stings, but Baldwin’s breakout locks him as Atlanta’s 2026 catcher, potentially triggering a Murphy trade to shed his $15M deal for pitching or offensive help, per Halden’s suggestion of targeting Nola. With Ronald Acuña Jr. trade rumors and a rotation needing depth (3.89 ERA, 22nd in MLB), Baldwin’s cost-controlled bat is a cornerstone for GM Alex Anthopoulos’ rebuild. The BBWAA’s November ROTY vote could correct the snub, as Baldwin’s full-season edge resonates with voters, but Horton’s win highlights Chicago’s pitching pipeline.

Conclusion

Drake Baldwin’s .274 average, 19 homers, and defensive poise made him a deserving NL ROTY candidate, but Cade Horton’s 2.67 ERA in 22 starts and Cubs’ playoff run clinched the Sporting News award. The debate—Baldwin’s durability versus Horton’s flash—exposes voter bias toward pitchers and winning teams. As the Braves pivot to 2026, Baldwin’s rise signals hope, while Horton’s win cements his ace trajectory. Will the BBWAA right this wrong?