CUBS PITCHING PANIC: Cease Gone, $210M Price Tag Sets Off Hoyer’s Free Agency Fire Alarm.vc
CHICAGO, IL — The Chicago Cubs’ stated priority of adding starting pitching depth has been met with a massive obstacle: the explosion of the free-agent market. The commitment of Shota Imanaga (who accepted the $22.025 million Qualifying Offer) was the only rotation move made so far, but the news late Wednesday that Dylan Cease—the target many insiders had linked to the Cubs—signed a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays has sent a clear message to Jed Hoyer’s front office: the market is on fire.1
The $30 million Average Annual Value (AAV) for Cease, despite his volatile performance history, immediately shrinks the available options and raises the price of the remaining high-end arms. The Cubs, who historically shy away from such long-term, high-risk contracts for pitchers, must now radically adjust their strategy.
The Dwindling Options: Who is Left for Hoyer?
With Cease off the board and the Blue Jays also securing Cy Young winner Shane Bieber (who opted in), the list of top-tier pitchers is quickly becoming thin, forcing the Cubs to choose between high-cost durability and high-risk upside.
1. Framber Valdez (LHP, Free Agent)
- Case: Valdez, coming off a 2$3.66$ ERA season with 187 strikeouts, is now arguably the most proven and durable left-hander on the market.3 He is projected to command a massive deal—some analysts predict as high as six years, $200 million.
- Fit: Valdez provides the high-volume innings that the Cubs’ rotation desperately needs, having thrown 973 innings since 2020 (tied for the most in MLB with Max Fried).4
2. Tatsuya Imai (RHP, NPB Posting)
- Case: Imai is the biggest wild card. His ERA was under $2.00$ in NPB, and he brings premium velocity and strikeout stuff. Critically, he has been vocal about preferring a team without other Japanese players (like the Cubs’ Shota Imanaga), wanting to face cultural and survival challenges alone.
- Fit: While his desire for a non-Japanese teammate is a hurdle, the Cubs are not entirely out. Imai and his agent, Scott Boras, will prioritize the best overall deal, and the Cubs’ need for an ace-caliber starter could override his stated preference.
3. Ranger Suárez and Michael King
- Case: Both Ranger Suárez (a two-time All-Star) and Michael King (a high-upside swingman) offer quality. However, the Cease deal virtually guarantees both will command significantly higher contracts than initially projected, likely putting Suárez well into the $130M+ range.
- Fit: They offer shorter-term deals than Valdez or Imai, which traditionally aligns better with Hoyer’s preference, but the escalating price makes even these options financially daunting.
The Cubs’ Moment of Truth
Jed Hoyer has been vocal about prioritizing pitching, but the market is now demanding unprecedented spending, directly challenging the Cubs’ recent history of financial conservatism in the pitching market.5
The team has a deep pool of prospects, making a major trade for a cost-controlled pitcher like Sandy Alcantara (Marlins) or Joe Ryan (Twins) a highly viable, and perhaps preferred, alternative to chasing the escalating free-agent prices.
If the Cubs are truly committed to bolstering their rotation to contend in 2026, they must move decisively now. With the top arms quickly disappearing, every day of inaction narrows Hoyer’s options.
