The Chicago Cubs could indeed get incredibly lucky this offseason, and it all hinges on the free agency decision of Cody Bellinger—the former Cubs star who was traded to the Yankees last winter.
Bellinger’s decision acts as the key domino that directly influences the availability of the Cubs’ top-two remaining free-agent targets: Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber.
The Lucky Scenario: Bellinger to the Yankees
The Cubs’ best-case scenario is Bellinger signing a massive contract elsewhere, specifically with the New York Yankees (or a team like the Dodgers/Mets).
1. The Kyle Tucker Effect (The Big Prize)
If the Yankees succeed in re-signing Bellinger, it immediately removes the Yankees from the bidding war for Kyle Tucker—the biggest left-handed power bat on the market and a former Houston/Cubs star.
- The Advantage: The Yankees are the biggest financial threat to the Cubs’ pursuit of Tucker (who is projected to command up to $460 million). By taking the Yankees out of the picture, the Cubs face less competition, potentially lowering the final guaranteed amount and significantly improving their chances of landing the elite outfielder.
2. The Phillies’ Pressure Release (The Backup Plan)
The Philadelphia Phillies are reportedly interested in Bellinger as a backup plan if they fail to re-sign their own star slugger, Kyle Schwarber.
- The Advantage: If Bellinger signs with the Phillies, it means the Phillies have secured their power bat and will likely not pursue Schwarber with the same intensity. This would leave Schwarber, who recently rejected a huge offer from the Phillies to return to the Cubs, with a clearer path back to Wrigley Field at the Cubs’ preferred price point.
In short, if Cody Bellinger secures a massive deal with the Yankees, it creates a cascading effect of less competition for the Cubs’ top targets, allowing them to finally land the star bat they need.
