Cubs Eye Dylan Cease as $125M Free Agency Splash: The Ace to Stabilize a Rollercoaster Rotation Amid Tucker Exit.vc
The Chicago Cubs’ 2025 postseason run—a gritty Wild Card berth capped by an NLDS thriller against the Brewers—exposed both promise and peril. While rookie sensation Cade Horton (3.15 ERA, 185 K in 165 IP) and Shota Imanaga (2.91 ERA, All-Star nod) emerged as frontline anchors, the rotation’s depth crumbled under injuries to Justin Steele (shoulder strain, 12 starts) and Javier Assad (oblique, 18 GS), forcing reliance on spot starters like Colin Rea (4.20 ERA) and Ben Brown (4.85 ERA in 20 starts). With Kyle Tucker—the blockbuster offseason acquisition—poised to test free agency and depart (projected $400M+ elsewhere, per rumors), the Cubs must pivot aggressively. Enter Dylan Cease, the San Diego Padres’ strikeout machine whose 2025 “unlucky” surface stats (4.55 ERA, 8-12 in 32 starts) belie ace potential. Per Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter, Cease is slated for a five-year, $125 million pact—the ninth-largest free-agent deal—positioning him as the perfect $25M AAV addition to pair with Horton and Imanaga, per Sporting News.
Tucker’s Likely Exit: A Catalyst for Rotation Reinvestment
Tucker’s one-year Cubs tenure (.275/.390/.520, 28 HR, 30 SB, 5.2 WAR) was a revelation, per FanGraphs, but his free agency—after the Astros-Cubs swap cost prospects like Owen Caissie—spells a $400M departure to suitors like the Dodgers or Yankees, per MLB Trade Rumors. Jed Hoyer, per The Athletic, regrets not extending him, but the $20M savings (Tucker’s prorated $12M salary) fuels pitching pursuits. With Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 30-30 breakout (.247/.287/.481, 31 HR, 35 SB) and Matt Shaw’s infield grit anchoring the lineup, the rotation demands priority—echoing the Braves’ $75M Sonny Gray trade to bolster Chris Sale and Spencer Strider.
The Cubs’ 2025 staff ranked 8th in NL ERA (3.77) but faltered in October, with a 4.95 playoff ERA, per Yahoo Sports. Depth woes—Steele’s IL stints, Taillon’s final-year opt-out risk ($18M, per Spotrac)—left them vulnerable, per MLB.com. Imanaga’s options (player/team mutual through 2028, per reports) cloud his status, while Horton (22, 4.5 WAR) needs a veteran co-pilot.
Why Cease Fits: Strikeouts, Upside, and a Full-Circle Homecoming
Cease, 30 in December, traces his roots to the Cubs’ 2017 Quintana trade (top prospect then). His 2025 line—215 K in 168 IP (11.5 K/9, 3rd in NL), 4.55 ERA, 1.28 WHIP—masks misfortune: a .312 BABIP and 1.45 HR/9 (career 1.10) scream regression, per RotoWire. His 28.5% K rate and 98-mph fastball/slider combo mirror Tyler Glasnow’s profile (5Y/$136.5M extension), per Reuter—ideal for Wrigley’s wind-aided confines.
Cubs interest dates to January, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, with exploratory talks amid Padres payroll crunch ($13.75M salary, free agent post-2025). Though San Diego (NL West contenders) leads re-signing odds, per CBS Sports, Chicago’s top-5 farm (MLB Pipeline) and $195M payroll afford a splash—rivaling their $53M Imanaga pact.
Projected Rotation with Cease: A Formidable Front Four
| Spot | Pitcher | 2025 Stats | 2026 Projection (ZiPS) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shota Imanaga | 2.91 ERA, 178 K (170 IP) | 3.10 ERA, 190 K | Ace stability; options exercised |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | 4.55 ERA, 215 K (168 IP) | 3.60 ERA, 220 K | K upside; regression candidate |
| 3 | Cade Horton | 3.15 ERA, 185 K (165 IP) | 3.20 ERA, 200 K | Rookie phenom; workload ramp |
| 4 | Justin Steele | 3.85 ERA (limited, 100 IP) | 3.40 ERA, 170 K | Health-dependent; Cy Young upside |
| 5 | Jameson Taillon | 4.00 ERA, 140 K (150 IP) | 3.90 ERA, 145 K | Veteran innings-eater |
(Data via FanGraphs/ZiPS projections and MLB.com; Cease’s addition per Reuter/BR analysis.)
The $125M Pitch: Value, Risks, and Bidding War Stakes
Cease’s deal—5Y/$125M ($25M AAV)—slots below Glasnow’s but above Corbin Burnes’ comps, per Spotrac, rewarding his 28% K rate despite HR woes (career-high 28 in 2025). For Hoyer, it’s a “big splash” (Cubs’ largest since Heyward’s $184M in 2016), per Sporting News, but payroll flexibility ($195M in 2025) and Tucker’s savings make it feasible.
Risks? Walks (3.8 BB/9) and HR proneness (1.45/9) could haunt Wrigley, per RotoBaller, but his 4.2 WAR average (2019-2024) and full 32-start workload scream durability. Padres re-signing (frontrunner, per SI) looms, but Cubs’ prior talks (per Morosi) and Cease’s Chicago ties (ex-prospect) fuel hope.
Alternatives like Framber Valdez (Astros, per BR) or Joe Ryan (Twins trade) exist, per The Athletic, but Cease’s K pedigree edges them for a Tucker-less lineup. Echoing Chris Sale’s family-fueled Braves redemption or Kerry Wood’s loyalty, Cease could be the “full-circle” arm, per NBC Sports.
Verdict: Enter the Bidding War—Cease Could Unlock October
The Padres hold leverage, per CBS, but as a “rental” post-2025, Cease’s value dips—inviting Cubs aggression, per Bleacher Nation. In a winter mirroring the Braves’ Gray pursuit, Hoyer must bid boldly to pair Cease with Horton/Imanaga, per Yahoo—transforming depth woes into dynasty dreams. As Tucker exits, Cease’s slider could be the spark: A $125M bet on upside, ready to ignite Wrigley.
