IMAGE: Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) celebrates with center Drew Dalman (52) after scoring the game-winning touchdown against New York Giants during the fourth quarter at Soldier Field. / David Banks / Imagn Images
The Chicago Bears are 8-3 heading into a high-stakes Week 13 Black Friday clash with the Philadelphia Eagles – and while that record looks playoff-worthy on the surface, the path to January football is far from guaranteed.
According to projections shared by Ali Bhanpuri of NFL.com, the Bears enter the week with just a 59% chance to make the playoffs, despite sitting atop the NFC North. That number might surprise fans who’ve watched this team stack wins in eight of their last nine games. But in a tightly contested NFC, every game carries weight – and this one against the Eagles could swing the playoff picture dramatically.
So what’s on the line for Chicago?
If the Bears knock off the NFC East-leading Eagles, their playoff odds would jump to 76%. That would put them at 9-3, still in control of the division, and squarely in the mix for one of the top seeds in the conference. It’s not just about stacking wins – it’s about momentum, confidence, and tiebreakers that could matter in a few weeks.
But if the Bears fall short, they’d drop to 8-4, and their playoff chances would slide to 53%. That’s not a collapse by any means, but it would tighten the margin for error down the stretch. And in a division race that’s heating up fast, every slip matters.
Here’s where it gets interesting: even with a loss, the Bears still have several key opportunities to shape their own destiny. Matchups against the Packers (twice), Lions, 49ers, and Browns remain on the schedule. That’s a gauntlet – but it’s also a chance to prove they belong in the postseason conversation.
As it stands, the Bears have just a 22% shot at winning the NFC North, per Bhanpuri’s projections. The Packers lead the way at 43%, with the Lions close behind at 34%. Green Bay’s Thanksgiving Day win over Detroit shifted the balance in the division, and now the Bears are looking to reclaim control.
So yes, this Week 13 matchup is a big one – not just because of the opponent, but because of what it could mean for the bigger picture. A win would vault the Bears into a stronger playoff position and give them a legitimate shot at the division crown. A loss, while disappointing, wouldn’t close the door – but it would make the road tougher.
Bottom line: Chicago’s playoff hopes are still very much alive. But with the Eagles coming to town, the Bears have a chance to take a big step forward – or face a steeper climb in the weeks ahead.
