Austin Riley’s $212M Contract in Question? Braves Slugger’s 2025 Struggles Linked to Critical Flaw.vc

ATLANTA — The Atlanta Braves have built a reputation for locking up their young, core players with long-term, team-friendly deals. But as the 2025 season concludes, mounting concerns surround one of the team’s highest-paid stars: Austin Riley.

Riley, a fan favorite and cornerstone of the franchise, finished a 2025 campaign that fans and analysts alike would prefer to forget. Following two years of declining performance, the slugger’s massive 10-year, $212 million contract is now under scrutiny, with many questioning if the deal will ultimately favor the Braves.

From MVP Candidate to 2025 Disappointment

The Braves organization showed immense faith in Riley, handing him the lucrative extension after an MVP-caliber season in 2021. Riley immediately rewarded that decision, earning consecutive All-Star selections in 2022 and 2023, cementing his status as one of the league’s most feared hitters.

However, the 2025 season marked a significant drop-off. While injuries have certainly played a part in his recent struggles, a deeper dive into his performance reveals a critical, persistent flaw: a lack of plate discipline, especially against specific pitches.

Analysis: The Breaking Ball Problem Plaguing Riley

For Riley to return to form, the issues against breaking balls must be addressed. In 2025, his numbers against sliders and curveballs were alarming.

• Against Sliders: Riley’s performance cratered. He batted just .176 against the pitch in 2025, accompanied by a staggering 34.3% strikeout rate and a 40.7% whiff rate (rate of swings and misses). This is a stark contrast to 2024, where he managed a .311 average against sliders, despite a still-high 37.6% whiff rate.
• Against Curveballs: While his average against curveballs technically “improved” from .130 in 2024 to .182 in 2025, his strikeout rate against the pitch remained excessively high, indicating he is still not seeing the pitch effectively.

A Troubling StatCast Paradox

What makes Riley’s slump particularly frustrating for the Braves is the underlying data. A look at his StatCast page shows a player who still possesses elite tools.

His metrics for bat speed, average exit velocity, launch angle, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage all remain near the top of the league. However, these powerful tools are being completely nullified by atrocious process-based metrics. His whiff percentage, chase percentage, strikeout percentage, and walk percentage reveal a hitter who is impatient and swinging at pitches he cannot handle.

When these offensive struggles are combined with his documented below-average defensive performance at third base, the full picture of his difficult 2025 season becomes clear. This disconnect between his raw power and his actual production is a major reason why his nomination for a Silver Slugger award this year shocked many fans.

Can Riley Regain His Form? Patience Wears Thin

Austin Riley must improve his plate discipline and develop a counter-approach to breaking balls if he is to return to the MVP-level performer the Braves are paying him to be.

There is plenty of time left on his 10-year deal for a significant turnaround. However, with one of the league’s highest payrolls and perennial World Series expectations, the patience of the Atlanta faithful may run out much sooner.