The winter transfer market has suddenly found an unlikely center of attention: reliable right-hander Aaron Civale. Just days after his $8 million contract from the Chicago Cubs expired, a major sweepstakes for the starter has ignited.
Three primary contenders have emerged to vie for this “stable asset” in what has been a cruel offseason for all teams seeking reliable, dependable pitching depth for the new season.
Civale is considered a “stable asset” because, despite a mediocre 4.85 ERA in 2025, his career track record shows he can be a reliable mid-rotation starter. His underlying metrics often outperform his final results.
1. New York Yankees: The Pitching Fix
The Yankees are currently engaged in a desperate search for strong starting rotation depth behind their ace, Gerrit Cole. They particularly need an arm that can eat innings and keep the ball firmly on the ground.
The Yankees simply cannot afford to take a chance on a high-risk starter after multiple pitchers dealt with severe injuries in 2025. They need a proven, reliable rotation piece for the long haul.
Civale is a groundball-heavy pitcher who works quickly and throws strikes effectively. His ability to limit hard contact is ideal for Yankee Stadium, where fly balls turn into home runs quickly and decisively.
Insiders suggest the Yankees view Civale as a high-floor option. They are reportedly willing to offer a generous three-year deal in the 40-45 million range to secure him quickly ahead of rivals.
2. Houston Astros: The Reclamation Project Bet
The Astros have a consistent track record of acquiring pitchers with good raw stuff and refining them into dependable frontline starters. They have a looming need for rotation stability as their veteran pitchers age.
Houston needs to reload their rotation on a carefully managed budget. Civale represents a solid chance to buy low on a pitcher with clear upside, a common and effective move for their experienced front office.
Civale’s repertoire of six different pitches gives Houston’s expert pitching coaches plenty of raw material to work with and optimize. His strong finish to the 2025 season showed that his potential remains very high.
The rumor suggests the Astros are likely offering a shorter-term, high-AAV deal, potentially two years at an $18 million AAV. They are confident they can fully rebuild his value for his next major contract.
3. Boston Red Sox: The Division Rival Block
The Red Sox’s primary goal this winter is to keep pace with the rest of the powerful AL East division, and their rotation remains a serious question mark heading into the next year.
Signing Civale would serve two strategic purposes: adding a competent, reliable arm, and critically preventing a division rival like the Yankees from getting him and gaining an advantage.
The Red Sox desperately need consistent innings pitched from reliable starters. Civale has proven he can handle a full workload. He provides stability and allows them to stop over-relying on young arms.
The Red Sox are viewed as a serious threat in the sweepstakes due to their available payroll funds. They are willing to pay an overslot AAV on a three-year commitment to jump ahead of the Yankees in the negotiations.
