The Overlooked Upside: Why the Astros Should Give Lucas Giolito a Serious Look as a Mid-Rotation Arm. DD
The Houston Astros are going to be in the market for a starting pitcher this winter, and Lucas Giolito may be a good option for them without breaking the bank.
The Houston Astros have quite a few holes to fill prior to the 2026 season, and one of the biggest issues to overcome for them is going to be their current payroll books. With the team right up against where they want to be ahead of the season, it is going to be difficult to retain any of their key free agents hitting the market, and even if they can, adding to that will be even harder.
With Framber Valdez hitting the market and more than likely leaving, starting pitching is going to be one of the most crucial spots for the Astros to invest in ahead of next year. Hunter Brown leads the way as a now perennial Cy Young award contender, but behind him, it gets more shaky. Spencer Arrighetti looked solid before injury, but is still not a sure thing, and Jason Alexander looked at least competent in his reps.
Beyond that, it is a bit of a free-for-all, as Houston still has three players recovering from Tommy John surgery, all of which occurred during the 2025 season, so the timeline extends deep into next year. With the money factor being counted, it may be worth it for the franchise to look into signing someone like Lucas Giolito to steady the ship.
What Would Giolito Bring to the Houston Astros in 2026?
Spending on a top arm this winter would be exactly what every fan wants for Houston, understandably. The unfortunate reality is that, as-is, the franchise needs to find options that may end up being on the cheaper end compared to someone like Valdez.
Currently, Giolito is projected to earn a deal somewhere in the range of $55 million to $60 million over the span of three years. This is plausible for the Astros, and he may end up being one of the best options at that price.
A late-season injury stopped Giolito from putting together a full 2025 campaign, but he got about as close as one could ask. In 26 starts, he pitched 145 total innings, accruing a 3.41 ERA, 1.290 WHIP, 121 strikeouts, 56 walks, 17 home runs allowed, 8.1 hits allowed per nine innings, a 120 ERA+ and 2.1 bWAR.
Additionally, it is worth noting that new assistant pitching coach Ethan Katz coached Giolito previously at Harvard-Westlake High School, so there is some level of connection between the two sides.
Now, he hits free agency, and in his lone appearance against Houston last season, he gave the Major League scouting department something to look at. In that game, he went eight full innings, allowing only three hits and one earned run, walking one batter and striking out four.
This set up a 6-1 victory for the Red Sox, and now, that type of arm would fit exceptionally well behind Hunter Brown, in combination with maybe a smaller-scale addition for the four or five spot in the rotation.
