BOSTON, MA — The Boston Red Sox’s blockbuster trade for three-time All-Star pitcher Sonny Gray—a move celebrated for adding a much-needed veteran arm behind ace Garrett Crochet—is reportedly facing a Code Red situation before the season even begins. A shocking new detail related to the contract restructure and Gray’s recent injury history is challenging the long-term optimism surrounding the deal.
While Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow praised Gray’s consistency and track record, the concern centers on the high cost and the player the Red Sox sent away.
The Shocking Detail: The “One-Year Rental” Guarantee
The most overlooked detail of the trade involves the immediate and drastic restructuring of Gray’s existing contract, which essentially guarantees the 36-year-old right-hander is a one-year rental, despite the team’s need for long-term rotation stability.
- Original Deal: Gray was owed $35 million for 2026 and had a $30 million club option for 2027 (with a $5 million buyout).
- New Deal: The Red Sox restructured the contract to a $31 million salary for 2026 and a $30 million mutual option for 2027 with a $10 million buyout.
The Problem: The addition of a “mutual option” almost never gets exercised by both the team and the player. This means Gray is essentially guaranteed $41 million for the 2026 season ($31M salary + $10M guaranteed buyout), making him a highly paid, single-season commitment. The move secures his waiver of his no-trade clause but provides the Red Sox zero security beyond 2026, forcing them back into the pitching market next year.
The Challenge: A Risky Price for Short-Term Help
The Red Sox’s desire for an established No. 2 starter led them to make a high-stakes trade, but the return from St. Louis for their pitching prospects is being scrutinized under the lens of Gray’s recent health issues:
- Prospect Cost vs. Guaranteed Health: The Red Sox traded away two young, controllable arms: right-hander Richard Fitts (an MLB-ready arm) and left-handed prospect Brandon Clarke (the team’s former No. 5 prospect with high velocity). In return, they receive a 36-year-old who, while durable recently, finished the 2025 season dealing with neuritis in his throwing arm and had a pectoral muscle strain earlier in the year.
- The Fitts Factor: Fitts, who pitched 11 games for the Red Sox in 2025, struggled with a high ERA ($5.00$) but had a mid-90s fastball and the kind of versatile pitch mix the Red Sox typically covet. Moving him for a one-year rental pitcher with recent arm issues is the detail that is sending up the CODE RED signal inside Fenway.
The Red Sox correctly identified their need for an established front-of-the-rotation arm, but by giving up valuable, controllable pitching assets for an expensive one-year commitment to a pitcher entering his late 30s with recent arm-nerve issues, many analysts fear they may have overpaid and compounded their long-term rotation stability problems.
