The Chicago Cubs fanbase is indeed experiencing “wildfire hope” mixed with immense nervousness regarding Kyle Tucker, the top free-agent outfielder this offseason. His emotional Thanksgiving message recalling his single season with the Cubs underscores the personal connection he made with Wrigley Field, but the business reality points toward a massive bidding war elsewhere.
Tucker, who rejected the Qualifying Offer from the Cubs (a $22.025 million guarantee), is now officially an unrestricted free agent tied to draft pick compensation.1
The Chicago Buzz vs. The Market Reality
While the Cubs would certainly love to retain the four-time All-Star, the reports from top baseball insiders suggest a reunion with the Cubs is considered a “long shot” and that Tucker “probably won’t” end up back in Chicago.
| Status | Details |
| Cubs’ Financial History | The Cubs’ largest free agent contract in history was $184 million (Jason Heyward), nowhere near the $400M+ required for Tucker. |
| Cubs’ Compensation | If Tucker signs elsewhere, the Cubs will receive an extra 2026 draft pick (after the second round), which softens the blow of his departure. |
| Tucker’s Price | Projected deal is 10 to 11 years, worth over $400 million (with some projections as high as $427M). |
The True “Star Hunters”
The competition for Tucker, a player with a rare combination of power, speed, plate discipline (walking more than he strikes out over the past two seasons), and Gold Glove defense, is fierce and is being led by the game’s highest-spending clubs:2
| Team | Rationale |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Top candidate; Tucker fills their biggest hole in the outfield and his skills (OBP, defense) are a perfect fit. They have the financial firepower and deferred money tactics to secure the deal. |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Strong contender; coming off a World Series appearance, the Blue Jays have been the team most frequently linked to Tucker by insiders at the GM meetings. |
| New York Yankees | Strong fallback option; the Yankees are prioritizing Cody Bellinger but see Tucker as the stronger, more durable long-term solution if Bellinger negotiations fail. |
| New York Mets | Always in the mix; known payroll giants who are constantly seeking to upgrade their outfield and are willing to spend massive amounts. |
The question is not whether Tucker wants to stay, but whether the Cubs are willing to venture into the unprecedented $38–$40 million AAV range for the next decade—a venture they have historically avoided.
