The Detroit Tigers go into the offseason with arguably the biggest question in baseball looming over them as it relates to their superstar repeat American League Cy Young ace Tarik Skubal.
As Skubal approaches free agency a year from now and contract extension talks have pretty much gone nowhere to this point, despite Skubal wanting to stay in Detroit, the main talking point with the franchise is, of course, will they or won’t they trade him.
Most signs to this point indicate that answer is a likely no barring a Godfather offer, but the time will come sooner than later when Skubal is getting paid. A free agency deal signed this week by one of the top available starters on the market, Dylan Cease, to the Toronto Blue Jays illustrates just how dire the situation may be.
Despite not even having a great 2025 season by his standards, Cease inked a jaw-dropping seven-year deal worth $210 million with the defending AL champion Toronto Blue Jays.
With the durable right-hander not even close to the level of Skubal the last two seasons, the writing is on the wall here.
Skubal Eventual Contract Will Shatter Previous Records
Despite yet another healthy season in which he made a full 32 starts, Cease had the worst full campaign of his career with a 4.55 ERA and 1.327 WHIP alongside a bWAR of just 1.1.
To his credit, the strikeout numbers were still there for Cease with a Major League leading 11.5 K/9, however it was clear he was missing a step.
The struggles of Cease — who was not even the consensus top pitcher on the market this offseason — did not stop Toronto from extending a massive long-term commitment. Given that Skubal is on a historic two-year run, assuming he does not sign an extension before free agency, it’s not unreasonable to think he could double the total value on Cease’s deal.
With another great and healthy season in 2026, Skubal’s number is going to absolutely shatter records, and the deal for Cease just confirms it.
Tigers Will Have Even Harder Time Keeping Skubal After Cease Deal
In terms of total value, the largest pitcher contract ever is Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Gerrit Cole received a similar total from the New York Yankees for nine years to set the highest AAV record.
Should Skubal continue his same level of dominance that has produced an absurd 12.9 bWAR over the last two seasons, it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that the southpaw is going to go well over these numbers.
While anything could happen, that kind of contract being handed out by Detroit to a pitcher has never felt all that likely. The ugly truth on the Cease contract and eventual likely additional huge deals this winter is that it only makes it more difficult for the Tigers and Skubal.
If Detroit does not trade him now, each passing day makes it feel more and more likely 2026 will be Skubal’s final season in a Tigers uniform. It won’t be long before Skubal’s day to get paid comes, this is the inevitable part.
The question is just who it’s going to be from.
