With Josh Hader’s future far from guaranteed, the Astros may need a contingency strategy that protects their late-inning stability. DD

HOUSTON, TEXAS – JULY 28: Josh Hader #71 of the Houston Astros pitches during the ninth inning against the Washington Nationals at Daikin Park on July 28, 2025 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)Getty Images

In the midst of yet another terrific season in which he was 6-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 28 Saves, Josh Hader’s season came to a screeching halt.

It was a Friday night, August 8th, in the Bronx, where Hader had just gone 2 innings and earned his 6th win of the season against the New York Yankees. 2 IP, 1 H, 1 Unearned run, 1 walk, 0 strikeouts.

Zero strikeouts was odd. Hader faced 8 batters and allowed 7 fly balls. He didn’t strike out a batter.

Meh. Whatever. He got the job done.

It was the last game he would pitch in 2025.

Hader would be diagnosed with a shoulder strain, which later would be identified specifically to his shoulder capsule. Initially it was revealed he would be out longer than 15 days. How long exactly? The Astros weren’t saying.

A week later Hader gave some insight to his injury, stating he would be shut down three weeks and then would need another three weeks to rebuild strength and stamina. The regular season was out of the question, but the door was left open for hope for a postseason run.

Unfortunately for Hader and the Astros, Hader’s injury was the crack that finally broke the dam. A team that thrived on overcoming injuries had run out of magic potions. The team went 4-7 in their next 11 games, and would stumble to an 18-17 record to finish the season, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016 on a tiebreaker.

Hader’s shoulder capsule injury was worrisome. He was in the second year of a 5-year, $95M deal, a huge deal both for a closer and by Astros free agent standards. Shoulder capsules can be devastating injuries, having drastically altered many careers of terrific pitchers young and old.

Shoulder capsule surgeries drastically changed the careers of some of baseball’s elite pitchers. Just since 2000, pitchers like Johan Santana, Clayton Kershaw, Chien-Ming Wang, Brandon Woodruff, Mark Prior and Kelvim Escobar were notable staters to require shoulder capsule surgery.

The surgery turned the hard-throwing Santana to a control pitcher, and a subsequent capsule tear ended his career. Clayton Kershaw had the surgery in 2023, and made 30 appearances the next 2 seasons combined, no longer striking out batters the way he previously did, but having to induce more contact. Prior and Escobar never pitched in the majors again. Woodruff has seen his 98 MPH heat change to 92 as he reinvents himself on the mound, returning from the procedure after missing approximately 24 months due to the injury.

Hader relies on a 95-96 MPH fastball and sharp slider. Would he be able to keep that level of stuff after a shoulder capsule injury?

Hader was determined not to need surgery, but had not thrown when the Astros season ended. Since that time, very little had been said about the status of Hader’s injury. With the Astros track record for injuries and return-to-play procedures, it was certainly understandable if fans thought the worst.

However, on November 12, Astros GM Dana Brown told the media that Hader was “progressing well” in his recovery and that he had thrown off of a mound three times while rehabbing recently.

Five days later, Brown said the team hoped Hader would get “ramped up sometime early to mid-February” and that Hader was “on course to come back and be there for Opening Day”.

Yesterday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle spoke with Hader at his “Hader’s Heart” charity event outside Daikin Park where the All-Star closer said that he finished his rehab from his capsule sprain weeks ago and was looking forward to a normal buildup to Spring Training.

Hader stated “It should be normal. Obviously, intensity gets up and we’ll see how that goes and how I’m recovering, bouncing back from that. But as of now, everything is status quo, back to normal.” Hader further elaborated that he was throwing “up to just about over 85.”

Hader added he “didn’t really want to go too much harder than that, but enough to where I threw a couple sliders, changeups and fastballs to make sure I was able to take that load and felt really good. So I ended up on that note and gave myself a couple weeks of no-throw and now I’m back at it and being able to get into a regular offseason.”

Hader’s presence and ability to dominate games at the end is a key component of the Astros’ path to victory. What happens of Hader’s velocity takes a dip? If his command isn’t quite right? If he has a setback?

Not requiring surgery for the injury is certainly a positive, but it also begs the question if not having surgery now simply delayed the inevitable? With the track record of length of time to recover and diminished stuff following shoulder capsule surgery, it certainly makes sense that for Hader (and really any pitcher) to try to push off that surgery as long as possible. But for the Astros, who are very reliant on Hader’s excellence to be successful, can they gamble straight up that Hader will be 100% ready to go for Opening Day and will look like his usual stellar self?

It’s a massive risk for the team, especially with the amount of injuries suffered by the pen last season. It was so depleted that the team had to rely on Kaleb Ort and Enyel De Los Santos as their primary righthanders in setup situations in front of elevated closer Bryan Abreu. Normally Abreu is the bridge to Hader, as lethal a 1-2 punch at the back of the pen as there is in baseball.

The Astros need to fortify the bullpen, but should they be looking for at least one more reliever in the vein of Abreu to be an insurance policy for Hader? Usually pitchers of that caliber want to close, and not be an eighth inning guy – let alone a seventh inning guy which is what could well be the case if Hader proves healthy and his usual effective self. It definitely requires a “sell job” by Dana Brown to convince a pitcher of that caliber to accept a less prominent role, and it will also require Dana to open the checkbook, as those pitchers aren’t going to both accept a less prominent role and a discount.

Would a pitcher like Devin Williams be willing to pitch in a setup role to rebuild his full value after a down year in the Bronx where his FIP was more than 2 runs lower than his ERA? Can the Astros convince the seemingly ageless David Robertson to join them for a full season and not wait until after the All-Star Break to sign a deal? Perhaps a free agent signing of a quality setup guy like Seranthony Dominguez who misses bats, or maybe one like Luke Weaver who has gotten a taste of closing in New York for a contender?

With the team exploring deals potentially involving players like Jake Meyers, Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes, can they get a quality pen arm or 2 back in the return of those potential deals?

The risk to bank on Hader being 100% and his prime dominant self is simply far too great for an Astros team that desperately needs him at the end of the game. Patching what’s left of the pen with castoffs and minor leaguers is not going to get the Astros back to the postseason.

The Astros should be looking for at least 2 high quality righthanded relievers, so they will have a lockdown pen if Hader is healthy and a full bridge to Abreu if he isn’t.

One thing that definitely cannot happen for this team is that Hader goes down early and they have no way to really improve the team until teams are willing to trade come mid-June. The time to plan and address this is the off-season, now.