Recent analyses expose the Blue Jays’ most underwhelming draft picks by bWAR, shining a light on where the team went wrong. DD

The Blue Jays have done a nice job of avoiding big bust draft picks in recent years.

The MLB draft is a big crapshoot, even when compared to other sports league drafts. With both high schoolers and college players being picked, they’re often years away from making their debuts and a lot can happen with their development in that time.

Unless a high profile draft pick and prospect flames out, then busts are usually forgotten. There are so many minor leaguers who come up and down that those busts often get lost in the shuffle. They could struggle in the minors and lose momentum or just not perform well when they make the majors.

It happens to every team, even the Toronto Blue Jays. However, they have done a great job of avoiding prospect busts at the big league level in recent years. They aren’t invincible, and the first name on this list is a prospect who became one of the best pitching prospects in baseball before his unfortunate big league career thus far.

1. RHP Nate Pearson, -1.0 bWAR

It wasn’t that long ago that Pearson was supposed to become the new, young ace of the Blue Jays staff. Drafted in 2017, the right-hander went into the 2020 season ranked as the third best pitching prospect and a top ten prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, before his debut that season.

In 2019, he had a career year that vaulted him up lists, starting 25 games between three levels. In 101.2 innings, Pearson posted a 2.30 ERA and had a 10.5 K/9 as a 22-year-old. The hype around the right-hander was substantial, as he had both an 80-grade fastball, the best in the minors, and a plus slider, according to his scouting report.

Based on his stuff, though, there was a concern that he would wind up being a reliever. Even then, there weren’t many starters sitting 100 mph with regularity, or at least to the level that he was. It would turn out that those concerns would become a reality.

Pearson’s career got off to a shaky start in a shortened 2020 season, starting five of his six games. In 18 innings, he had a 6.00 ERA, gave up five home runs (2.5 HR/9), and had 13 walks to just 16 strikeouts. The reliever downside showed itself immediately, and Pearson was moved to the bullpen the next season. In 15 innings, he had a 4.20 ERA, but struck out 12 batters per nine.

Pearson missed the 2022 season with an injury. In his third season, he had a 4.85 ERA in 35 appearances and cut his walks significantly. After becoming a regular in the bullpen in 2024, he was traded at the deadline. Once a prized prospect, Pearson made just six starts as a Blue Jay.

2. Joe Lawrence, -1.0 bWAR

Drafted in the first round of the 1996, Lawrence didn’t make his debut until 2002 as a 25-year-old. The second baseman got off to a red hot start in his pro career in the lower minors, but his game changed as he got closer to the big leagues.

Lawrence had a brief stint in Low-A the year he was drafted, but his first real action came at Single-A in 1997. In his 116 games, Lawrence had a nice season. He hit 24 doubles, eight home runs and posted a .652 OPS, but he seemingly took a step forward in 1998.

At High-A, the infielder hit 31 doubles, six triples and 11 home runs all while having more walks (105) than strikeouts (88). He had an excellent on-base percentage of .441 while having a .917 OPS overall. He only played 70 games the following season, but had a similar year in 2000 between High-A and Double-A.

He had a career high 41 doubles and 13 home runs as a 23-year-old, but that would prove to be the high point of his career. Beginning in 2001, Lawrence’s power was completely zapped. Moving forward, his highest slugging percentage at any level was .299.

In 55 games with Toronto in 2002, Lawrence only hit .180 with a .508 OPS, two home runs and a 35 OPS+. That cup of coffee would be his only major league experience and 2003 was his last baseball played.

3. RHP Jeff Ware, -0.7 bWAR

The right-hander was drafted in the first round in 1991 and made quick work of the minor leagues. After having a great year with a 2.63 ERA in 75.1 innings, Ware missed the 1992 season after just 12 starts in his first year.

He came back in 1993 and struggled in his first year back, allowing 29 runs in 38 innings. At 24 years old, he threw another 75 innings, and after just 188.1 innings in the minors, Ware made his debut in 1995.

Following his promotion, Ware lost control on the mound and couldn’t throw strikes in when he reached Toronto. In his first 26.1 innings he allowed 16 runs, but he walked 21 batters and only struck out 18. A ratio like that makes it hard to succeed.

In 1996, though, it got even worse. He was moved to the bullpen and only started four of his 13 games. Ware threw 32.2 innings, gave up six home runs and walked a whopping 31 batters. His walks per nine sat at 8.5, but he had just a 3.0 K/9.

Ware is currently the Blue Jays pitching coach.

4. RHP Alex Sanchez, -0.6 bWAR

Of every player on the list, Sanchez had the shortest big league career. He was drafted out of UCLA in the first round of the 1987 draft. That season, he started 17 of the 18 games he pitched and got off to a great start, posting a 2.65 ERA in 98.1 innings with an 11/0 K.9.

The next two years, between Double and Triple-A, Sanchez continued on his tear. In 1988, he had a 2.83 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in 207 innings. The following season, he had a 3.13 ERA in 169.2 innings at Triple-A and made his debut as a 23-year-old.

Similarly to Ware, Sanchez lost his control upon his arrival in Toronto. He threw just 11.2 innings, allowing 13 runs, walking 14 and striking out just four batters.

He pitched to an ERA above five the next two seasons in the minors before being traded away. His four games in 1989 proved to be the only major league action of his career.

5. LHP David Purcey, -0.6 bWAR

Purcey was drafted three different times, but it wasn’t until being drafted by the Jays in the first round did it stick. The lefty had an up and down minor league career before making his debut in 2008. Like two other pitchers on this list, he started as a starter before transitioning to the bullpen.

He had a great year in 2005 at High-A and Double-A, throwing 137.1 innings and posting a 3.41 ERA and 10.6 K/9. He struggled with command, walking 5.3 batters per nine, but the stuff was clearly there.

In 2006, between Double and Triple-A, Purcey struggled. He tossed a career high 140 innings, but his walks stayed the same and his strikeout rate went down by two per nine innings. He had a 5.53 ERA and a WHIP of 1.657. The next season he only started 11 games, but his ERA was at 5.37.

Purcey went back to his 2005 form in 2008 at Triple-A, throwing 117 innings with a solid 2.69 ERA and 9.3 K/9. Encouragingly, his walks were down at 2.6 per nine. He made his debut that same season and his command issues resurfaced in 65 innings, walking 4.0 batters per nine.

As a starter in his first two years with Toronto, the lefty posted a 5.81 ERA and 1.593 WHIP. He was moved to the bullpen in 2010 where he had the best season of his career with a 114 ERA+ in 34 relief innings.

After just five games in 2011, he was traded.