In a move that surprised most MLB insiders, Japanese left-hander Shota Imanaga (the main character in this contract decision) has accepted the Chicago Cubs’ one-year, $22.025 million Qualifying Offer (QO). His decision, which was reportedly finalized just ahead of the deadline, is a strategic masterstroke for the pitcher and immediately changes the Cubs’ outlook for the 2026 season.
Imanaga’s acceptance is a clear “bet on himself” and a smart business decision that secures his spot on the mound for the upcoming season while maintaining his leverage for next year.
The Win-Win Decision: High AAV and Future Freedom
Imanaga’s acceptance is a strategic move that favors both the player and the team, given his complex contract situation and late-season struggles in 2025:
| Aspect | The Imanaga Win | The Cubs Win |
| Salary | Receives $7.025 million more than his rejected $15 million player option, securing a high Average Annual Value (AAV) for 2026. | Secures a veteran starter for one year without committing to the $57.75 million, three-year extension they declined. |
| Market Leverage | Removes draft-pick compensation from his next free agency (after 2026), making him a more attractive long-term signing candidate next winter. | Avoids the need to surrender a draft pick if he had signed elsewhere, while retaining a known, controllable quantity. |
| Career Trajectory | Gets a full year in a familiar environment to regain the form of his stellar 2024 rookie season (2.91 ERA) and boost his value for a much larger contract in 2026. | Fills a crucial hole in the rotation with an established arm (3.73 ERA in 2025), allowing the front office to shift their focus. |
The Impact: Shifting the Rotation Picture
The Cubs had been preparing to replace Imanaga, but his return instantly plugs a major hole and provides much-needed stability to the rotation. The 2026 rotation now has a more defined shape, featuring established veterans and high-upside youth:
- Rotation Locks: Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton (Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2025), and Jameson Taillon.
- Depth/Swing Options: Colin Rea and Javier Assad.
- The Big Question: Justin Steele is due back from Tommy John surgery, but his timeline remains uncertain.
Cubs President Jed Hoyer had previously stated that pitching would be the team’s “largest focus” this offseason. While Imanaga’s return checks one box, the need for another “top quality arm” remains, especially with the uncertainties surrounding Steele and Imanaga’s occasional inconsistency (he surrendered 31 home runs in 2025).
The unexpected return of Imanaga, who had been expected to decline the QO and seek a multi-year deal, does not give the Cubs an excuse to stop spending. Instead, it allows them to enter the rest of the market with a less desperate position, focusing their resources on one high-impact starter or trade acquisition.
Imanaga’s return is a relief, but the Cubs still need an ace. Would you like the latest news on the Cubs’ pursuit of trade target Dylan Cease to solidify their rotation?
