The Chicago Cubs are facing one of the most significant long-term decisions of their offseason: securing a contract extension for young superstar center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA). Coming off a breakout 30-home run, 30-stolen base, Gold Glove-winning 2025 season at just 23, the timing and structure of an extension are under intense scrutiny, with the outcome poised to shape both the present roster and the team’s long-term financial outlook.
The Extension Equation: Value vs. Risk
PCA’s versatility—elite defense and speed combined with newfound power—makes him an indispensable piece of the Cubs’ young core. However, his lackluster plate discipline (high strikeout rate and low walk rate) and a second-half offensive drop-off in 2025 introduce risk, making the negotiation complex.
| The Argument For an Immediate Extension (The Upside) | The Argument Against an Immediate Extension (The Risk) |
| Buy-Out Savings: Locking in PCA now buys out his three (or four, if he qualifies for Super 2) arbitration years and multiple free-agent years at a discounted rate. Waiting another year could put him “out of Chicago’s price range entirely.” | Value Skyrocketed: PCA’s rejection of a $75M–$90M offer in spring 2025 means his price has dramatically increased. The next offer will likely need to be in the $150M–$187M range to be competitive. |
| Roster Stability: Securing PCA, alongside Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson, provides a clear, long-term blueprint and signals confidence in the talent pipeline. | Plate Discipline Concerns: PCA’s high strikeout rate and low walk rate present a major red flag, especially given his offensive struggles in the second half of 2025. Committing $150M+ before this is corrected is a massive gamble. |
| Market Comparables: The value is still lower than what he could command on the open market in 2031. For instance, Corbin Carroll’s 8-year, $111M deal is an obvious target to beat, but PCA’s team has set the bar much higher. | Control Time: PCA is currently under club control through 2030 and won’t hit free agency until his age-29 season. The Cubs can afford to wait until after the 2026 season to see if he sustains his elite production. |
The Negotiation History and Projections
The two sides reportedly had brief, failed negotiations in the spring of 2025:
- Cubs’ Initial Offer: Reports varied, but the offer was said to be between $75 million (max value with options) and as high as $90 million.
- PCA’s Rejection: PCA and his representatives rejected the deal, betting on his potential. His performance, which included an All-Star nod and a 6.0 bWAR season, proved that bet was correct.
Current Projections: Analysts now project a long-term deal to buy out multiple free-agent years would likely need to be in the range of 8 years and $170 million to secure him through the 2033 season. This would likely be the largest guaranteed contract in Cubs history.
The decision to either commit a massive sum now and stabilize the roster, or delay the deal and risk PCA playing his way into an even more expensive market, is the core strategic dilemma facing the Cubs front office this winter.
The Cubs are also looking to lock down another key infielder. Would you like the latest update on the team’s talks with Nico Hoerner regarding his potential contract extension?
