Michael King to the Mets? Breaking down the biggest advantages — and hidden risks — of making the deal.NL

nhat long4 hours ago

0 12 3 minutes read

The easiest and cleanest way for the Mets to add a top-of-the-rotation starter to their staff this offseason is to turn to the free agent market, where the headliners are Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, and Ranger Suarez.

Ahead of his age-32 season, Valdez is the oldest of the available top starters. And he’ll be seeking a huge deal.

Suarez, who turned 30 in August, might be the safest bet — but he’s also the least imposing. He has allowed 8.6 hits per nine during his eight-year career, is not a big strikeout guy, and has never thrown 158 innings or more in a season.

Then there’s Cease, whose upside is sky high.

Entering his age-30 season, Cease has finished in the top-four in Cy Young voting two of the last four seasons. And he eats tons of innings. However, he’s coming off a campaign where he had a 4.55 ERA, and has been maddeningly inconsistent.

With Suarez not an ideal fit, Valdez in line for a monster contract, and the up-and-down Cease possibly looking at a deal as long as six years, could a trade for a top starter paired with a signing of King make the most sense for a Mets team in need of serious rotation reinforcements?

Here are the pros and cons of signing King…

San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Michael King (34) throws a pitch against the Colorado Rockies during the first inning at Petco Park. / Orlando Ramirez – Imagn Images

PROS

King, who will be entering his age-31 season in 2026, was tremendous for the Padres in 2024 as he transitioned from relieving to being a full-time starter.

Over 173.2 innings in 2024 — which was nearly 70 innings more than the career-high he tossed in 2023 — King had a 2.95 ERA (3.33 FIP) and 1.19 WHIP while striking out 201.

King was still effective in 2025, but his season was interrupted twice due to injuries.

In 73.1 innings spanning 15 starts this past season, King had a 3.44 ERA (4.42 FIP) and 1.20 WHIP while striking out 76.

While King has the ability to pitch near the top of the rotation when healthy, questions about his durability could result in the contract he signs this offseason being short.

That could mean a three-year contract. Or perhaps King bets on himself and takes a one-year deal with an eye on hitting the market again next offseason and cashing in.

Either way, he will almost certainly not get anything close in terms of years or average annual value to what Valdez, Suarez, Cease, or even Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai will get.

On a three-year deal, King would be a medium-risk, high-reward proposition.

On a one-year deal, the risk would be incredibly low.

San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Michael King (34) pitches against the New York Mets during the first inning at Petco Park. / Orlando Ramirez – Imagn Images

CONS

King dealt with a nerve injury in his throwing shoulder last season, and also lost time due to a knee injury.

While with the Yankees in 2022, he suffered a rare elbow injury in July that ended his season.

King has less mileage on his arm than most starting pitchers his age since he only recently transitioned to starting, so that’s a plus. But it’s also a double-edged sword of sorts since it means he isn’t used to the rigors of starting every fifth day.

A look at King’s advanced stats also show a precipitous drop from 2024 to 2025 in lots of key areas.

Most importantly, his pitching run value went from near the top of the league to near the bottom.

Meanwhile, after King’s xERA, chase percentage, whiff percentage, and barrel percentage were all elite in 2024, he was below average in each of those metrics in 2025.

Looking at King’s stuff, while he has a legitimate four-pitch mix (sinker, four-seam fastball, changeup, and sweeper) and also tosses in a slider every now and then, his sinker and four-seamer are noticeably down in velocity.

In 2022, King’s sinker averaged 95.5 mph. In 2025, it averaged 92.7 mph.

In 2022, King’s four-seamer averaged 96.4 mph. In 2025, it averaged 93.7 mph.

VERDICT

For a Mets team that needs more consistency in the rotation after their 2025 season was derailed because their starting staff faltered, King is arguably too big of a question mark.

Perhaps he could make sense on a one-year deal if he’s paired with a top-of-the-rotation addition. But saving that, the Mets should be focusing their attention elsewhere.

nhat long4 hours ago

0 12 3 minutes read