The New York Yankees have received what they consider a “promising update” on the potential return of outfielder Trent Grisham, but it’s not the acceptance of their contract offer. Instead, the update involves the likelihood that Grisham will decline the Qualifying Offer (QO), a decision that could be a “game-changer” for the Yankees’ entire offseason strategy.
The Yankees extended the one-year, $22.025 million Qualifying Offer to Grisham (the main character in this contract saga) after his surprising breakout season, which saw him hit a career-high 34 home runs and post a strong .811 OPS in 2025.
The “Promising Update”: Declining the QO
According to MLB insiders like Bob Nightengale, the Yankees expect Grisham to turn down the QO before the deadline on November 18. This expectation is a “game-changer” for two key reasons:
- Draft Pick Compensation: If Grisham signs with another team, the Yankees will receive a compensatory draft pick in the 2026 MLB Draft. This is a valuable asset, especially if the Yankees commit significant money elsewhere.
- Outfield Flexibility: A decline immediately frees up the $22.025 million guaranteed salary on the books. This financial flexibility is crucial as the Yankees openly pursue their top targets: Juan Soto and Cody Bellinger (who is also a free agent).
Yankees GM Brian Cashman stated the team would be happy if Grisham accepted, but acknowledged the silver lining of a decline:
“If he turns it down, that means the market is flush with teams that have a need in the outfield, especially center field… We’d be happy if he accepted and came back.”
Why Grisham Is Expected to Walk
Despite the massive raise the QO represents (quadrupling his 2025 salary of $5 million), Grisham is expected to decline because he is likely to secure a longer-term contract elsewhere in free agency.
- Market Value: Grisham’s market value is currently projected by sources like MLB Trade Rumors to be in the range of 4 years, $48 million to $66 million.
- Betting on Longevity: Accepting the QO is a one-year bet on himself, but declining allows him to lock in financial security for his age 29-32 seasons, avoiding the risk of re-entering the market a year later with no guarantee.
Teams around the league were reportedly “perplexed” by the Yankees extending the QO, believing the money could be better spent. However, if Grisham declines, the Yankees will have played the market perfectly, maximizing their financial flexibility while securing draft capital.
Grisham’s expected departure clears the way for the Yankees’ biggest offseason targets. Would you like the latest update on the team’s pursuit of Cody Bellinger for the center field position?
