With back-to-back Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal as the “white whale” on the trade block, here is a complete breakdown of the best values, bust risks, and hidden gems in a “minefield” of a free-agent pitching class.
The 2025-2026 MLB offseason is defined by one of the most unusual pitching markets in years. It’s not a deep free-agent class, and the best arm available isn’t even a free agent.
The entire market is being held hostage by one man: Tarik Skubal.
Before any team is willing to spend $200 million on a free agent, their first call must be to the Detroit Tigers. Here is a breakdown of the market, starting with the man who sets the board.
1. The Market-Defining “White Whale”
Tarik Skubal (LHP, Trade Target) The 29-year-old is, without question, the best pitcher in baseball, having just won back-to-back AL Cy Young Awards (2024, 2025).
- The Situation: Skubal is not a free agent. He is arbitration-eligible for 2026 and a free agent in 2027. Extension talks with Detroit have reportedly stalled, and the Tigers are now officially “listening” to trade offers.
- Market Impact: The price is “astronomical” (likely one of the largest prospect hauls in history), but teams with deep farm systems (Mets, Astros, Red Sox, Blue Jays) are all weighing the same question: Is one guaranteed year of an ace worth trading the future? Every top free agent is in a “holding pattern” until Skubal is moved.
2. The “Best Value” Free Agent Aces
If (or when) the Skubal price proves too high, these are the safest, most valuable arms on the market.
- Ranger Suárez (LHP, 30): This is the “high-floor, safe” ace of the class. He posted an excellent 3.20 ERA in 2025 and is a consistent No. 2/3 starter. He doesn’t have Skubal’s “wow” factor, but he’s a durable commodity for a team that can’t stomach a nine-figure gamble.
- Tatsuya Imai (RHP, 27): The top pitcher being posted from Japan. He’s a true power arm (sits 93-97, touches 99 mph) with a devastating slider. After dramatically improving his command (2.5 BB/9) and posting a 1.92 ERA in 2025, he is the highest-upside arm in the class and will command a nine-figure deal.
3. The “Bust Risks” (High-Cost Gambles)
This category is defined by massive contract projections and equally massive red flags.
- Dylan Cease (RHP, 30): The ultimate “buyer beware” ace. His stuff is electric (30% career strikeout rate), but he followed his 2022 Cy Young runner-up season with a 4.55 ERA walk-year. A team will pay him over $200 million, betting they can “fix” him.
- Framber Valdez (LHP, 32): He’s a dependable innings-eater, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 and “doesn’t miss many bats.” More importantly, reports of “questions about his conditioning and attitude” make a $150M+ deal an enormous risk.
- Shota Imanaga (LHP, 32): After a brilliant 2.91 ERA in his 2024 rookie year, Imanaga “collapsed” in 2025. He posted a 5.17 ERA down the stretch and was passed over for a start in the Cubs’ do-or-die playoff game, making him a huge risk.
4. The “Hidden Gems” (High-Upside Value)
This is where the real value is found—pitchers with ace-level talent but significant concerns that will lower their price.
- Brandon Woodruff (RHP, 33): This is the #1 hidden gem of the offseason. He missed all of 2024 (shoulder) but was utterly dominant in his 12-start return in 2025 (3.20 ERA, 2.19 xERA). He is a true, top-5 ace when healthy. His injury history means he’ll likely get a shorter, high-AAV “prove it” deal.
- Lucas Giolito (RHP, 31): Giolito had a fantastic 3.41 ERA bounce-back in 2025, but a late-season elbow injury “suppressed his market.” He says he’s 100% healthy, and if teams believe him, he could be a mid-rotation bargain.
- Freddy Peralta (RHP) & Sandy Alcantara (RHP): These are the “hidden trade gems.” For teams that miss on Skubal, the Brewers (Peralta) and Marlins (Alcantara) are both listening. Peralta is on a bargain contract, and Alcantara (a former Cy Young winner) looked “like himself” at the end of 2025 after returning from Tommy John surgery.
