Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh: Inside the Factors That Could Decide This Ultra-Tight AL MVP Race

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Tonight, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) will announce the 2025 American League MVP. The decision has been boiled down to one of the most classic and “ultra-tight” philosophical debates in recent memory: Aaron Judge’s all-around offensive dominance versus Cal Raleigh’s historic, record-shattering power from the catcher position.

This year’s race presents a fascinating clash of baseball ideologies. Judge, the New York Yankees captain, produced one of the most complete offensive seasons of the 21st century. Raleigh, the Seattle Mariners’ “Big Dumper,” redefined what’s possible from the game’s most demanding position.

As the baseball world holds its breath, here is a look at the core factors that will decide the winner.

The Tale of the Tape: 2025 AL Statistics

Metric	Aaron Judge (NYY)	Cal Raleigh (SEA)	League Leader
HR	53	60	Raleigh
RBI	114	125	Raleigh
AVG	.331	.247	Judge
OBP	.457	.359	Judge
SLG	.688	.589	Judge
OPS	1.144	.948	Judge
WAR (fWAR)	10.1	7.6	Judge
wRC+	206	161	Judge

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The Case for Cal Raleigh: The 60-HR Catcher

Raleigh’s case is built on a simple, powerful, and historic foundation: 60 home runs from the catcher position.

• Historic Milestone: Raleigh didn’t just hit a lot of home runs; he rewrote the record books. He shattered the single-season record for a catcher (surpassing Johnny Bench’s 45) and the all-time record for a switch-hitter (surpassing Mickey Mantle’s 54).
• The “Traditional” MVP: For voters who prioritize the “big two” glamour stats, Raleigh is the clear winner. He led all of baseball in home runs (60) and the AL in RBIs (125).
• Positional Supremacy: He did this while playing 135 games behind the plate, the most physically grueling job in sports. The wear and tear on a catcher’s body is immense, making his power-hitting durability (he played 159 games total) even more remarkable to voters.
• Team Narrative: Raleigh was the undisputed offensive engine for a Mariners team that won its first AL West division title since 2001, providing the defining “value” to a winning team.

The Case for Aaron Judge: The All-Around Juggernaut

Judge’s case is built on pure, unadulterated, all-around dominance. His argument is that while Raleigh won the home run race, Judge was, by almost every other metric, the single best and most valuable player in baseball.

• The Analytical King: Judge led the American League in seven major offensive categories: batting average (.331), on-base percentage (.457), slugging percentage (.688), OPS (1.144), runs (137), wRC+ (206), and WAR (10.1).
• The “Total Value” Gap: His 10.1 fWAR is astronomically high, suggesting he was worth 2.5 more wins to the Yankees than Raleigh was to the Mariners. His 206 wRC+ means he created 106% more runs than a league-average player, a number that evokes comparisons to the primes of Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth.
• The Batting Title: By winning the batting title while also hitting 53 home runs, Judge achieved a rare combination of elite contact, patience, and power that Raleigh’s .247 average cannot match. There is a “cavernous” 196-point gap in OPS between the two.

The Deciding Factor: A Philosophical Choice

This “ultra-tight” race will come down to how each BBWAA voter defines “Most Valuable”:

1. “Historic” vs. “Dominant”: Is a historic 60-homer season from a catcher more valuable than a dominant all-around season that analytics rank as one of the best of the modern era?
2. Narrative vs. Numbers: Will voters be swayed by the “story” of Raleigh—the 60-homer, division-winning catcher—or by the undeniable, black-and-white spreadsheet of Judge’s total offensive production?
3. The Positional Question: How much of a “bonus” does Raleigh get for squatting behind the plate? Voters must decide if that bonus is large enough to close the massive 2.5-win gap in WAR.

Ultimately, this is one of the most compelling MVP races in years, with two superstars who both delivered seasons for the history books. The winner will be revealed tonight.