How spoiled are we that a season in which Gunnar Henderson posted a 121 OPS+, stole 30 bases, and was worth 5.3 bWAR, it feels like a disappointment. That is simply the result of the standard he created with his MVP-caliber 2024 effort, a bar he fell well short of this past summer.
Henderson had been otherworldly in ‘24. Over 159 games he hit .281/.364/.529 with 37 home runs, 92 RBI, and a 155 OPS+. That earned him his first trip to the all-star game and a fourth-place finish in MVP voting. While it was always going to be hard to maintain that level of production, something in the neighborhood felt like a guarantee for the next five years, at least.
Instead, nearly all of the shortstop’s numbers took a dive in 2025. He lost more than 100 points off of his OPS, saw his home run total cut in half, and did not end the year with any awards at all.
But a disappointing season is not the same as a bad one. Henderson remained plenty productive. For example, he was once again one of the league’s elite base runners, stealing 30 bases for the first time in his career, and was worth seven base running runs, according to Baseball Savant. And while he saw his OPS+ drop by 34 points, he was still 22% better than league average.
It’s worth wondering how the intercostal strain Henderson suffered in late February impacted his season as a whole. He missed the first week of the regular season, and then got off to a slow start, going 4-for-30 across his first seven games and slashing .228/.268/.413 in the month of April.
As the season wore on, Henderson heated up. His OPS jumped to .802 in May, .902 in June, and .881 in July. But post-trade deadline (when he lost Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Laureano in the lineup) his production thinned. He slashed .260/.328/.442 in August and then .241/.350/.322 in September.
A deeper look at his numbers reveals a talented hitter that was trying to make something happen on an offense that required his input on a nightly basis. While Henderson was able to maintain his league-average strikeout rate from 2024 to ’25, he did expand the zone. His chase rate increased from 24.4% to 27.7%, and his walk rate dipped from 10.8% to 9.5%.
Swinging at less-than-ideal pitches likely contributed to the drop in many of his other numbers. His barrel rate fell below league average, and his launch angle sweet spot rate was in the bottom 10%. So it tracks that he posted the highest ground ball rate (48.3%) of his career over a full season, and had a ton of infield fly balls (12.3%). Those two types of contact are rarely going to turn into hits, and they certainly aren’t pushing your power numbers in the right direction.
Defensively, however, Henderson took a step forward overall. His range at shortstop does not get the best marks (-3 OAA) for the season, but he made up for it with a strong throwing arm, and dependability. At one point he had a 73-game errorless streak, which came to an end in early September. Errors don’t hold the weight they used to, but making the routine plays does have value.
And Henderson showed improvement throughout the season. His worst month of the year was April, when he posted -6 OAA fresh off the intercostal injury. That means from May 1 his range was worth +3 OAA, which would be in the top half of shortstops.
Henderson’s defense is always going to play second fiddle to his offense, but the guy has a fine glove. Injuries made him look sluggish early on. Once he was closer to 100%, he was a better than average defender at one of the game’s toughest positions.
Despite a season that was less than what we have grown accustomed to with Henderson, there is no doubt about his standing within the club. He is the face of the franchise. He is the engine that drives the offense. And, if healthy, he should get back to being a perennial all-star and MVP candidate.
He shouldn’t have to do it all alone, though. The players around him need to step forward and make opposing pitchers scared of pitching around Henderson for fear of what lurks beyond him. The front office could also pitch in by adding a big bat this winter. There are rumors that they want to add a right-handed hitter in the outfield. That would help.
The only question surrounding Henderson is how long he will be in Baltimore. The 2025 season was his final pre-arbitration campaign, but he remains under Orioles team control through the 2028 season. The 24-year-old is expected to get a raise this winter from $782,000 to $6.6 million. The conversations that happen around arbitration can sometimes open the door to a long-term extension.
It should be noted that Henderson’s agent is Scott Boras, someone that is not known for getting his clients extensions prior to free agency. His theory of the case is that the players should get every penny possible, and that tends to happen on the open market. The Orioles desire to keep him in the organization for the next decade may be no match for Boras’ sway or even Henderson’s preference. We have not clue what the player wants to do.
For now, Henderson is an Oriole and will remain one for several seasons to come. He is one of the game’s elite and should be able to lead the O’s to a few more playoff appearances. Hopefully that includes 2026.
