The $22M Grisham Gamble: Yankees Face Qualifying Offer Dilemma That Could Block Bellinger’s Return and Crowd Out Prospects.vc

After a 34-HR breakout season, the Yankees must decide whether to risk $22.025M on Trent Grisham, a move that could block Jasson Domínguez and complicate the re-signing of Cody Bellinger.

NEW YORK — To qualify, or not to qualify?

That is the $22.025 million predicament the New York Yankees must answer by Thursday’s deadline regarding free-agent center fielder Trent Grisham. The fact that it is even a decision shows just how impactful Grisham’s 2025 season was, transforming him from a non-tender candidate into the team’s only real candidate for a qualifying offer (QO).

Fellow free agent Cody Bellinger is ineligible, having already received a QO earlier in his career. Reliever Devin Williams is not expected to receive one after struggling in his first and likely only season in pinstripes.

The $22 Million Risk

If the Yankees extend the one-year, $22.025 million offer to Grisham, 29, they would receive draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.

The risk is that he might accept it.

That $22M AAV is likely higher than what Grisham would receive on the open market, and he may take the massive one-year payday. If he accepts before the Yankees know whether they can re-sign Bellinger, the team’s entire outfield plan could be thrown into chaos.

Bringing back both Bellinger and Grisham would create a logjam in an outfield that already includes Aaron Judge. This would, in turn, “further cloud Jasson Domínguez’s future” and “block a path for top prospect Spencer Jones” to reach the Bronx in 2026.

Of course, if Grisham accepts the QO, the Yankees could still trade him if they also manage to re-sign Bellinger.

The Risk of Not Offering

The alternative is also risky. If the Yankees do not extend the QO, they get no compensation if Grisham leaves.

If they then also miss out on Bellinger—who is the second-best outfield option on the market behind Kyle Tucker—the Yankees would be left “scrambling” to fill center field. Beyond those two, the market is thin, though former Yankee and premium defender Harrison Bader (who just opted out of his Phillies deal) could be an option.

Was the Breakout Sustainable?

The decision comes down to whether the Yankees believe the 2025 version of Grisham is sustainable.

• Pre-2025 Career: In his first six seasons, Grisham hit just .213 with a .697 OPS. This included his 2024 debut with the Yankees, where he batted .190 with a .675 OPS as a fourth outfielder.
• 2025 Breakout: Grisham exploded in 2025, earning 124 starts and hitting .235 with a .811 OPS and 34 home runs (doubling his career high). His patient approach (.348 OBP) made him the team’s leadoff hitter against right-handers.

However, as his offense peaked, his defense (a two-time Gold Glove winner) cratered. Grisham registered minus-11 Defensive Runs Saved, the fourth-worst mark among all qualified center fielders. The Yankees must now decide if the new bat is worth the price, or if the declining glove and pre-2025 history make him a $22 million risk they can’t afford to take.