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Josh Allen kicked down the door to the two-man MVP race in Week 15 of the 2025 season, putting his hat in the ring to win back-to-back league MVPs.

Allen has gone from +1500 to +550 in the latest odds after the Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots in Week 15 to inch closer to the AFC East division lead.

Now, Allen is third in the odds behind Drake Maye (+425) and Matthew Stafford (-300). No other player has shorter than +7500 odds to win the MVP at DraftKings.

Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams remain in the No. 1 spot in the NFC, and he’s been an odds-on favorite to win the MVP for multiple weeks this season. Still, Allen is making a serious push late in the season, and his win over Maye is going to be a signature performance if he ends up taking this award. 

There isn’t much value down the odds board at this point in the season, but Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (+7500) has a small case that he can make, especially after a massive upset win over Green Bay.

Here’s a look at the latest odds to win the MVP award this season, as well as a breakdown of the play from some of the top candidates on Sunday. 

This is the first time this season that Stafford has hit -300 in the odds to win the MVP, and he has a massive game ahead in Week 16.

Stafford and the Rams take on the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night, and Davante Adams (hamstring) is unlikely to play in the game. If the Rams lose, they’ll fall out of the top spot in the NFC, which could crush Stafford’s MVP case.

So, there is some serious risk with the Rams star at -300, but he could jump even further in this market if he leads the Rams to a win on Thursday. 

Stafford led a comeback win over his former team – the Detroit Lions – on Sunday, throwing for 368 yards, two scores and one pick. He’s now up to an NFL-best 37 touchdown passes in 2025. 

Prior to Week 15, I wrote here at SI Betting why Allen was undervaluedin the odds to win the MVP: 

The Bills are likely going to need to win out to have a chance to overtake the Patriots, but it’s not impossible. If Allen turns in a monster game in Week 15 and pulls out a win, his odds are going to shorten in this market and come much closer to Maye.

Well, fast forward to Monday morning, and Allen is +550 to win the MVP while Maye is +425 and the Bills are now down to +210 to win the AFC East. Allen’s MVP case in all likelihood still rests on Buffalo winning the division, but it’s certainly possible with New England set as an underdog in Week 16 against Baltimore.

Allen was great on Sunday, throwing for 193 yards, three scores and rushing for 48 yards on 11 carries. He has one of the best dual-threat stat lines in the NFL, and his head-to-head win over Maye this late in the season is certainly going to help push his case forward if the Bills win the division. 

Maye’s MVP case may have evaporated on Sunday for multiple reasons.

One, he lost a critical head-to-head matchup with Allen (at home), putting the Patriots’ division odds in jeopardy. Secondly, the Broncos won, so New England is now a game back for the No. 1 seed in the AFC with three to play, and it doesn’t have the tiebreaker. 

Maye was not great on Sunday, even though he ran for two scores to salvage his stat line. The second-year quarterback completed just 14 of his 23 passes for 155 yards and a pick as the Patriots blew a major first-half lead.

After he was +200 to win the MVP last week, Maye has fallen all the way to +425 ahead of Week 16. 

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix hasn’t been great all season, but he was lights out on Sunday in a comeback win over the Packers.

Nix threw for 302 yards and four scores, and Denver now has sole possession of the best record in the NFL at 12-2. The Broncos have won 11 games in a row, knocking off Kansas City, Philadelphia, Houston, Green Bay and others during that winning streak.

At some point, doesn’t winning have to matter for this award? 

Nix doesn’t have the numbers that Stafford, Maye or Allen do – he has just 23 touchdown passes and is completing just 63.5 percent of his throws – but he’s led his team to a ton of success. 

He’s not a player I’d be at +7500, but with Denver controlling its own destiny for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the best record in the league, it feels like Nix should be shorter in this market. 

Ahead of Week 15, Packers quarterback Jordan Love was +1000 to win the MVP (third in the odds) after he took down the Chicago Bears. 

Now, Love is all the way back to +7500 to win the award as the Packers are the No. 7 seed in the NFC going into a crucial battle against Chicago in Week 16. 

Love was not great in a big-time matchup with Denver, throwing for 276 yards, one score and two picks in a road loss. Oddsmakers don’t seem to think that Love deserves to be in the conversation with Allen, Maye and Stafford at this point in the campaign.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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