What’s Next for Michael Harris II? Braves Outfielder Faces Crucial 2026 Season After Rollercoaster 2025 Campaign
ATLANTA
Few players in Atlanta’s lineup embody both promise and unpredictability quite like Michael Harris II. Signed through 2030 on a team-friendly deal that could extend into 2032, Harris remains one of the Braves’ most important long-term pieces. But after a volatile 2025 campaign, the 24-year-old center fielder enters 2026 surrounded by questions — not about his talent, but about how that talent is being developed.
A Career of Highs and Lows
Harris burst onto the scene in 2022, winning NL Rookie of the Year honors with 4.7 fWAR in just 441 plate appearances. That debut, however, came with a warning sign — he significantly outperformed his expected metrics. His .335 xwOBA that season suggested strong skills but not quite the elite-level production he achieved.
In 2023, his underlying numbers improved, but results dipped, producing 3.7 fWAR over 539 PAs. Then came 2024 — a season disrupted by injuries and poor luck — followed by a rocky 2025 in which his offensive identity seemed to splinter.
Whether by team-driven changes or his own approach, Harris shifted toward a contact-over-power style that sapped the exit velocity and pull-side damage that once defined him. His chase rate climbed, his swing decisions worsened, and his production cratered despite posting an average expected wOBA.
“He’s not broken,” one Braves insider told The Sporting News. “But 2025 looked like a player who was caught between two philosophies — one his own, and one the team wanted.”
The Contract and the Context
Harris’ deal remains one of the league’s most cost-effective long-term contracts. He’ll make $8 million in 2026, then gradually escalate to $12 million by 2030, with club options for 2031 ($15M) and 2032 ($20M). Even in an average season, he more than justifies the price.
Still, the Braves can’t afford to keep losing offensive value from a position that once looked like a cornerstone of their young core. With Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies both returning from injury, Atlanta needs Harris to stabilize both center field and the bottom half of the lineup.
Projection Models Split on His Future
Most public systems — including Steamer and ZiPS — continue to project Harris as a 3–4 WAR player in 2026, believing his athleticism, defense, and base-running will rebound naturally.
But one custom projection, dubbed IWAG (a fan-made model designed to shadow Steamer and ZiPS), paints a more uncertain picture. IWAG places Harris closer to the 2.0 WAR range, emphasizing 2025’s steep drop and the possibility of lingering mechanical or philosophical issues.
The model’s probability curve suggests:
- A 50% chance his 2025 struggles persist,
- A 25% chance he returns to being a solid above-average regular, and
- A 25% chance he rediscovers his Rookie-of-the-Year form or better.
In other words, a volatile bet — but one Atlanta may be willing to take.
Defensive and Baserunning Reliability
Despite the offensive decline, Harris remains one of baseball’s better defensive center fielders, though discrepancies between advanced metrics have muddied his exact value. His range and instincts continue to grade well, and while his 2024 base-running numbers dipped, they appear more anomalous than alarming.
The concern lies entirely in his bat — and whether Atlanta’s development staff can recalibrate his approach back toward damage rather than contact-for-contact’s-sake.
What’s at Stake
The 2026 season could define both Harris’ trajectory and how the Braves manage young talent moving forward. He’s still young enough to make adjustments and reclaim All-Star form, but another year of misalignment between player and philosophy could prove costly.
As one team source put it:
“The tools are there. The question is whether we let him use them his way.”
For now, Harris remains one of baseball’s most fascinating gambles — a player who has already shown flashes of superstardom but stands at the crossroads between mechanical refinement and systemic confusion.
Atlanta’s next dynasty chapter may depend on which version of Michael Harris II shows up next spring.
