CHICAGO, IL — The Chicago Cubs are facing a major decision with star outfielder Kyle Tucker, who officially hits the free agent market after a significant but injury-plagued 2025 season. Following the surprising departure of pitcher Shōta Imanaga, the question of whether the Cubs should meet Tucker’s projected asking price—estimated to be around 10 years and $400 million—has become the central focus of their offseason.
The consensus from the analysis suggests that, despite his elite status, Tucker is likely to depart the Cubs due to the massive contract projection and durability concerns.
Tucker’s Rollercoaster 2025 Season
Acquired in a blockbuster trade from the Houston Astros, Tucker instantly elevated the Cubs’ lineup, helping the team clinch its first playoff berth since 2020. However, his season was marred by a significant second-half slump tied to an injury.
| Time Period | Games | Slash Line (AVG/OBP/SLG) | OPS | Cubs Record | Key Event |
| April-May | 51 | .276/.390/.484 | .874 | 33-18 | Fueled team’s strong start. |
| June | 25 | .311/.404/.578 | .982 | N/A | Best month; earned All-Star nod despite jammed finger. |
| July 1 – Aug. 18 | 38 | .189/.325/.235 | .560 | 20-18 | Worst slump of career; later revealed he was playing with a hairline hand fracture. |
| Final Reg. Season | N/A | .266/.377/.464 | .841 | N/A | Final season line (22 HR, 73 RBI, 87 BB). |
Durability Concerns:
Tucker missed significant time in both 2024 and 2025 due to injuries. The most concerning factor for long-term commitment is the repeated injury trend:
- 2024: Missed time with a shin contusion.
- 2025: Played through a hairline fracture in his hand from June 1 until late August, which clearly impacted his production (as evidenced by reduced hard-hit rate and increased groundball rate). He then missed time in September with left calf tightness.
The Contract Barrier
The primary impediment to Tucker’s return is the historic price tag.
- Projected Deal: MLB executives project Tucker to receive a deal of around 10 years and $400 million in free agency.
- Cubs Precedent: The Cubs’ largest contract in franchise history remains the 8-year, $184 million deal given to Jason Heyward in 2016. A $400 million commitment would nearly double that figure, representing a “staunch commitment” for a player with recent durability concerns.
For President Jed Hoyer and the Cubs front office, taking on such a risky, decade-long contract for a player who has now dealt with three separate significant injuries across two seasons is highly doubtful, even if he is an elite performer when healthy.
Roster Implications
If Tucker were to re-sign, he would remain the starting right fielder, a position he effectively took over from Seiya Suzuki. However, his departure clears the path for the Cubs to integrate highly-regarded young hitting prospects like Owen Caissie and Moisés Ballesteros into the everyday lineup, offering cost-controlled flexibility.
The Final Verdict:
It is highly probable that Kyle Tucker will seek the maximum value he can command, likely from teams known for high spending like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, or New York Yankees. While he was a massive asset, the price and risk will likely lead the Cubs to prioritize a more conservative spending plan this offseason.
With both Kyle Tucker and Shōta Imanaga likely leaving, the Cubs have significant holes in their outfield and starting rotation. Which hole should the Cubs prioritize filling with a high-end free agent or trade acquisition this offseason?
