The Packers’ Offense Just Confirmed What Fans Have Been Whispering All Along, and Now the Real Test Begins
Drops were a key talking point around the Green Bay Packers’ offense last year. The team’s wide receivers were the worst in the NFL in mistakes, and it affected how efficient and effective the unit could be. But that’s why it’s important to evaluate what’s sustainable and what’s not. And drops are not.
They’re mostly a fluky stat, and it has shown. Through the first five weeks of the season (and the Packers have four games), Green Bay is the best team in the league in drop rate, according to FTN.
When we say something is not sustainable, here’s a good example: The Packers are the team with the lowest drop rate in the NFL in 2025. pic.twitter.com/47ECFdOlSO
Full transparency, there are different data for this type of play. PFF has credited the Packers with five drops, versus two from FTN. But anyhow, the pass-catchers are undoubtedly doing a much better job than last year.
That evolution has had a direct effect on overall performance. The Packers’ offense has improved from eighth to fourth in EPA/play, and from 14th to ninth in success rate. The unit is both more explosive and more consistent in the passing game, even if the running game has been underwhelming.
“On an offensive standpoint, we’ve done some good things,” quarterback Jordan Love said on Wednesday. “Just putting up points, I think we’ve done good minus the Cleveland game. There’s a lot of stuff to keep building on and it just is about the consistency, the details, trying to lock in on every play and just limit all the negative plays, the penalties. We haven’t given the ball away too many times yet early on, so that’s a really good sign. But just keep doing that, keep staying away from negative plays.”
Now, the challenge of unsustainability goes the other way around. If drops don’t tend to be sustainable when they happen, they aren’t as well when the team has been good at it. It will be hard to keep the low numbers, but that will be a key for the offense to maintain its high level.
The key for improvement
While the receivers have been better and the offensive line has been worse, in large part due to injuries, Jordan Love is the big key to make the offense reach its ceiling. So far this season, the quarterback hasn’t disappointed.
He’s second in adjusted EPA/play, fifth in success rate, fourth in completion percentage over expectation, and 10th in air yards. A truly elite combination of stats all across the board.
“I’ve got off to a great start. I think that’s obviously me, and it takes everybody on the offense to do that — blocking, receivers, everybody making plays,” Love mentioned. “There’s still room to keep improving, keep trying to be consistent. I still think there’s a couple misses out there. Obviously, the turnover is a big one in that Cleveland game. Wish I could get that one back.
“But good stuff to keep building on and keep executing at a high level,” Love added. “You do some good stuff, teams are going to try and find ways to stop that. So we just got to keep executing, keep finding ways to go out there and be our best on offense.”
The offense has played well in three out of four games. Against the 27th defense in EPA/play in the Cincinnati Bengals, it’s just another opportunity to prove that Green Bay can be a dominant offensive unit.
