The Packers’ $77 Million Bet is Crumbling Faster Than Anyone Predicted and the NFL Can’t Look Away.QQ

Almost everything the Green Bay Packers touch in free agency turns to gold. Xavier McKinney. Josh Jacobs. Even further back, Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Adrian Amos. General manager Brian Gutekunst has a surprisingly high success rate.

Yet his head-scratching move to overpay Aaron Banks is already proving to be a costly one, figuratively and literally. The Packers shocked everyone by paying Banks $77 million in the offseason, a move that forced Pro Bowl left guard Elgton Jenkins into a new position.

Packers fans struggled to understand the move then. It’s even harder to explain now.

Packers’ Aaron Banks signing looks even worse nine weeks into the season

Banks has struggled to stay healthy since arriving in Green Bay, and he hasn’t played all that well when available. The veteran battled back injuries on and off during training camp, and ankle and groin injuries during the regular season that have cost him two games. He is currently on the Week 9 injury report with a shin issue.

While he is holding up OK in pass protection, as is the entire offensive line, his run-blocking is letting him down. That was one of the primary reasons for signing him — the Packers believed he could run block.

We’re yet to see enough evidence. His disappointing 49.7 PFF run-blocking grade ranks 107th among 121 qualifying interior offensive linemen. He fares better in pass-blocking, with his 64.2 grade ranking 46th, but that’s still underwhelming considering his $19.25 million salary is the seventh-highest among guards.

The most concerning part is that the numbers suggest Green Bay’s run game is more efficient when Banks isn’t on the field. Here’s a worrying stat from Sumer Sports, via Wendell Ferreira of A to Z Sports.

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It’s frustrating because it was such an obvious overpay, a bizarre decision that almost felt like a panic move to kick off free agency. In no world did Banks play like a near-$20 million-per-year interior lineman during his time with the San Francisco 49ers.

And Gutekunst had other options. He didn’t need to move Jenkins to center, and instead could’ve left him at left guard and signed a center to replace the departing Josh Myers.

The Chicago Bears did just that, handing Drew Dalman a three-year, $42 million contract at just $14 million per year.

Dalman has helped instantly transform the success of Chicago’s offensive line — his excellent PFF run-blocking grade of 78.9 ranks 10th among all interior linemen and sixth at the center position. He is the 26th-best interior lineman for pass blocking.

The Bears paid far less than the Packers for Banks, and they are getting significantly better results.

Green Bay could make a move at the trade deadline, and second-year Jackson Powers-Johnson would be a dream target if the Las Vegas Raiders make him available. He offers center/guard versatility.

But Banks isn’t likely to be the player to make way in the lineup. While the Packers did just bench their other major free-agent signing, Nate Hobbs, they paid Banks far more money. Green Bay will absorb cap hits north of $20 million for the next three seasons with no affordable way out of the contract for at least another year.

The hope is that Banks will improve as he gets healthier, but at no point in his NFL career has he looked like one of the best guards in football. The Packers are paying him like it. Even worse, Banks has fallen well short of expectations, particularly in the run game.

It didn’t make much sense in March, and Packers fans’ concerns are quickly being proven right.