DATA DEFIES OPTIMISM: WHY THE FORECAST HAS DODGER OFFICIALS TURNING HEADS
LOS ANGELES, CA—The championship high of a 2025 World Series repeat is being met with a sobering reality check in the front office. A new data-driven forecast for the 2026 season has reportedly cast a “significant shadow” over the Los Angeles Dodgers’ $136.5 million investment in right-hander Tyler Glasnow.
While Glasnow was brilliant in flashes during the 2025 regular season and postseason, the numbers circulating through league circles suggest that the “cornerstone” of the Dodgers’ rotation may be trending toward a “high-priced liability” rather than a sustainable ace.
THE NUMBERS THAT STUNG: THE “INNINGS CLIFF”
The “disappointing forecast” centers on two brutal metrics that front offices use to gauge long-term value: Projected Workload and Sustainability.
- The 100-Inning Ceiling: Despite his elite stuff, Glasnow has failed to consistently cross the 100-inning mark. In 2025, he was limited to just 18 regular-season starts due to recurring shoulder issues.
- The “Stuff” vs. “Availability” Gap: Statcast data shows Glasnow remains in the 90th percentile for whiff rate and strikeout percentage. However, the new forecast predicts a 35% increase in injury risk for 2026 based on his biomechanical markers and the heavy load he carried during the 2025 October run.
- The Financial Efficiency Rating: For a player set to make a combined $60 million over the next two seasons, a projection of fewer than 22 starts per year represents a “hint of inefficiency” that Andrew Friedman’s front office rarely tolerates.
THE STRATEGIC SHIFT: FROM “ACE” TO “ASSET”?
This forecast explains why Glasnow’s name has suddenly surfaced in trade rumors as the Winter Meetings conclude. While the Dodgers publicly support him, insiders suggest they are listening to offers where Glasnow could serve as a headliner for a more durable arm.
| The Glasnow Reality Check | 2025 Performance | 2026 Disappointing Forecast |
| ERA | 3.19 (Regular) / 1.69 (Post) | Projected to rise to 3.85 due to fatigue. |
| Starts | 18 | Forecasted at 14–16 starts for 2026. |
| Salary Point | ~$27M | $30M+ (AAV including bonuses). |
| Market Value | “Elite Ace” | “High-Risk/High-Reward Bridge” |
THE “SKUBAL” ALTERNATIVE
The doubt surrounding Glasnow has directly fueled the Dodgers’ pursuit of Tarik Skubal. By moving a portion of Glasnow’s contract, the Dodgers could potentially “reset” their rotation around a younger, more durable Cy Young winner.
“The margin for error just shrank,” one rival executive noted. “The Dodgers aren’t panicking, but they are looking at the math. If Glasnow can’t give them 150 innings, that $135 million contract becomes a heavy anchor for a team trying to three-peat.”
ANDREW FRIEDMAN’S STANCE
Despite the forecast, Andrew Friedman reportedly spoke with Glasnow on December 14, telling him, “You’re not going anywhere.” For now, the Dodgers are choosing to believe in the player over the projection—but in an organization built on “precision and planning,” that confidence is being tested nightly.
