The simple act of Munetaka Murakami (the NPB slugger) having dinner with Los Angeles Dodgers star pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto (the familiar face) has ignited the inevitable—and likely overblown—speculation that the Dodgers are the frontrunners to sign the highly-coveted Japanese free agent.
While the dinner itself is easily explained by their shared history on the Japanese World Baseball Classic team, the sheer power and high-risk profile of Murakami make him one of the most intriguing and difficult players to project this offseason.
🇯🇵 The Murakami Scouting Report: High Risk, Immense Reward
Murakami’s profile, as he seeks to become the first Japanese position player to land a nine-figure deal, is defined by extremes:
| Area | Scouting Grade/Metric | MLB Outlook |
| Raw Power | 80 Grade (Max Exit Velo: $116.5 \text{ mph}$) | Elite, undeniable power that should translate to 30+ home runs, comparable to top MLB sluggers (Source 1.3, 3.1). |
| Offensive Peak | 2022 NPB Triple Crown ($\text{56 HR}$) | Has demonstrated the ability to be a historically dominant hitter when healthy and in rhythm. |
| Strikeout/Contact | $\text{28.6\% K-Rate}$ (2025); $\text{47.3\% Whiff Rate}$ (Secondary Pitches) | Alarming concern. His strikeout rate is expected to rise in MLB, putting him in the high-variance, “three-true-outcomes” category (e.g., Joey Gallo) (Source 1.3, 3.1). |
| Defense/Position | Projects as $\text{1B/DH}$ in MLB (Played $\text{3B}$ in Japan) | The defensive value is limited, placing a huge premium on his bat to carry his value (Source 1.3). |
| Durability | Missed $\text{56 games}$ in 2025 (Oblique Injury) | The missed time due to injury is an added complication for teams evaluating a major contract (Source 3.6). |
🛑 Why the Dodgers Are Not the Runaway Favorites (Yet)
Despite the dinner with Yamamoto and the organization’s clear history of acquiring Japanese talent (Ohtani, Yamamoto, Sasaki), the Dodgers are not currently the consensus favorites to land Murakami, according to oddsmakers and insiders:
- Positional Logjam: The Dodgers have Freddie Freeman locked in at first base and picked up Max Muncy’s option at third base. The Designated Hitter (DH) spot is permanently reserved for Shohei Ohtani (Source 2.4, 3.6). This means Murakami, a projected $\text{1B/DH}$, has no clear everyday path to the lineup.
- Market Competition: Multiple teams have been more actively and publicly linked to Murakami, where the fit is more seamless, particularly those needing a long-term third baseman or first baseman:
- Leading Teams (Odds): San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox lead the betting odds (Source 2.1, 2.3).
- Other Strong Contenders: New York Mets (especially if Pete Alonso departs), New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers, and Pittsburgh Pirates (Source 2.3, 2.5, 2.6).
While the Dodgers are always mentioned in the conversation due to their spending power and desire to win, the current roster construction and Murakami’s defensive limitations suggest that “dinner with a friend” is likely just that—a friendly reunion, not a secret signing meeting.
Given that the Dodgers have a positional logjam but a history of making aggressive moves, would you like the latest buzz on the New York Mets’ pursuit of Murakami as a potential replacement for Pete Alonso?
