Jasmine Crockett’s next move could reshape Texas politics — but will she take the leap to the Senate?NH
Though campaigns for the 2026 midterm elections have raged for months, the candidate field for March primaries won’t be official until they are approved by local political parties and the secretary of state.
That process begins Saturday, when the filing period for primary candidates opens. Texans will have one month to file their candidacies. The winners of the primaries advance to the November general election. Voters across the state will pick nominees for county, state, federal and judicial contests.
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As the opening of the filing period approaches, there are still questions about how some of the potentially hottest races will unfold.
Here are three topics that will be discussed until the filing period closes Dec. 8.
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Will Jasmine Crockett run for Senate?
For the past several weeks U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Dallas, has said she’s exploring running in the Democratic Senate primary for the seat held by longtime Republican incumbent John Cornyn. With each interview she gives, the speculation builds that she might jump into the race.
Crockett has made it clear she won’t run for a lost cause. She’s looking at data and commissioning polls to determine if her Senate candidacy could result in victory. Democrats haven’t won a statewide race since 1994.
It’s a tricky situation.
When Attorney General Ken Paxton opted to challenge Cornyn for the GOP Senate nomination, Democrats theorized the often embattled Paxton would provide an opportunity.
Democrats believe Paxton, who has overcome an impeachment effort and is now dealing with a highly publicized divorce, would be the weaker nominee and give them a shot at winning the Senate seat.
U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Houston, is also in the GOP primary.
Crockett has said she doesn’t believe Cornyn can be beat in a general election, so any move toward a Senate run is a bet that Paxton is going to win the GOP nomination.
Even if Cornyn isn’t the nominee, Crockett or any Democrat would be a longshot to win a statewide election in Texas, where many more Republicans vote in general elections and give GOP candidates a structural advantage.
While Crockett would energize Democrats and bring younger, infrequent and disaffected voters to the polls, she’ll also provide the Republican nominee with a rallying cry. She’s unpopular with most conservative voters, especially supporters of President Donald Trump.
If Crockett opts to run for Senate, it would reshape the Democratic primary race which is now largely a rumble between former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred of Dallas and state Rep. James Talarico of Austin. Polling shows Crockett leading both of them.
A University of Houston-Texas Southern University survey had Crockett leading a field of current and potential Democratic Senate candidates with 31% support. Talarico and former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso had 25%, while Allred scored 13% support. The poll of announced candidates found Allred leading Talarico 46% to 42%.
Boosted by a national profile, Crockett has become a prolific fundraiser. She has more than $4.6 million in her congressional campaign account. The prospect of a Senate contributes to her popularity, but actually getting into the race would be a gamble.
Even so, you can’t make history unless you try.
Musical congressional chairs
The rare middecade redrawing of the Texas’ congressional map has put at least one North Texas Democrat in peril.
U.S. Reps. Marc Veasey of Fort Worth, Julie Johnson of Farmers Branch and Crockett are considering their options after the new map radically changed their districts, as well as placing their homes outside of the areas they represent.
Hard choices must be made, and one of them will likely be outside of Congress when the 2026 political season concludes.
Which seats will they campaign for in 2026? That’s still to be determined.
If the new congressional boundaries are affirmed in court, Republicans are likely to flip District 32 from blue to red. That seat is held by Johnson, who told The Dallas Morning News she will run in the March primary for District 33, which is represented by Veasey.
Johnson lives nearby in what is now District 24, where Irving Republican Beth Van Duyne is the representative. Congressional candidates have to be from Texas, but are not required to live in the district they seek to represent.
All of Veasey’s Tarrant County base was moved out of District 33, making the seat more attractive for a Dallas candidate like Johnson.
Crockett now lives in District 33, and she’s considering running for that seat because she believes representatives should live in the district they serve.
Crockett could also run for the District 30 seat she now holds.
Veasey says he’ll run again for Congress and is studying his options. He could run for reelection in District 33, though his Tarrant County base is gone from there. Another option is District 30, which now has well over 200,000 Tarrant County residents.
Some Democrats want Veasey to run for Tarrant County Judge against Republican incumbent Tim O’Hare. Veasey has downplayed that idea.
The plans of the trio of Democratic lawmakers will be much clearer when a federal panel determines whether to allow the congressional map to stand or issue a temporary injunction against it. Plaintiffs argue that the map intentionally diluted the voting strength of minority residents.
What about Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson
Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson has said he’s focused on leading Dallas and dismissed speculation that he’s poised to leave City Hall to become a 2026 candidate for either congress or attorney general.
“I am NOT running for anything, and I will continue serving our great city as its mayor!” Johnson posted on X.
That chilled the burning City Hall rumor factory for the time being, but observers will still be watching to see if he changes his mind before the filing period ends in December.
In 2023 Johnson switched his political affiliation from Democrat to Republican, though Dallas mayor is still a nonpartisan post.
Running for any office in the 2026 midterm elections would be Johnson’s first electoral test as a Republican.
The political science points to Johnson not being a 2026 Republican candidate.
At this point, it would be a heavy lift for Johnson to suddenly jump into the attorney general’s race, where well-established Republicans have been campaigning and raising money for months. Johnson has never run a statewide campaign and would have to build his name recognition. With the holiday season upon us, he would have only a couple of months to raise money and mount a costly campaign.
A challenge would be convincing primary voters — some of the most conservative members of the GOP — that a candidate who served nearly 10 years in the Texas Legislature as a Democrat is in concert with their views.
Running for Congress would be less daunting, but still problematic. District 32, where rumors have him looking, was drawn for a candidate who can appeal to voters from Rockwall to East Texas, where the district now stretches.
Johnson is a strong campaigner, but other Republicans, including state Rep. Katrina Pierson, R-Rockwall, would be better positioned.
There has always been speculation about Johnson being a congressional candidate, even when he was a Democrat in the Texas House.
When it was thought he was a contender to replace the late trailblazing Democrat Eddie Bernice Johnson in Congress, Eric Johnson opted instead to run for mayor.
In an era of uncompromising partisanship, mayors and local officials are on the front lines of innovation and progress. With all the talk of Johnson seeking higher office, being a big city mayor is still the best way to test policy ideas, provoke thought and promote conservatism on a local level.
These are some of the reasons Johnson ran for mayor in 2019, and that office still gives him a unique opportunity to standout. His second term ends in 2027.
