Cubs’ High-Stakes Gamble: Will They Lock Up Shōta Imanaga or Let Their Japanese Ace Fly Free?.vc
Chicago, October 27, 2025 – As the Chicago Cubs lick their wounds from an NLDS exit to Milwaukee, one question looms larger than a 3-2 pitch count: What’s next for Shōta Imanaga, the unflappable lefty who steadied their rotation through injury and inconsistency? With Imanaga poised for restricted free agency after a solid 2025, the Cubs face a make-or-break crossroads—exercise a club option, ink a long-term extension, or risk losing their international sensation to a bidding war. Insiders call it the “crucial decision” of Jed Hoyer’s offseason blueprint, balancing Imanaga’s rising market value against a payroll squeezed by stars like Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong. In a town starved for aces, will Chicago bet big on the Hawk from Japan, or watch him soar elsewhere?
Imanaga’s 2025 Breakout: Steady Amid the Storm
Imanaga’s second MLB season was a testament to resilience. Signed to a four-year, $53 million deal in January 2024, the 31-year-old NPB import dazzled in his rookie year (15-3, 2.91 ERA, fifth in NL Cy Young voting) before a hamstring strain sidelined him for six weeks in 2025. Returning in June, he posted a 3.73 ERA with 117 strikeouts over 25 starts (125.1 innings), anchoring a rotation battered by Justin Steele’s Tommy John recovery and Colin Rea’s free agency. His command shone: a 2.52 BB/9 rate and .839 OPS against, blending a devastating splitter (35% whiff rate) with pinpoint control that evoked his Searex Lions glory in Japan.
Yet, questions lingered. A brutal September fade (6.51 ERA, 10 HRs allowed in 27.2 IP) raised durability flags, though his overall 3.9 WAR and positive clubhouse vibe—bowing post-outing, mentoring rookies like Cade Horton—made him indispensable. “Shōta’s our quiet storm,” manager Craig Counsell said. “He doesn’t just pitch—he inspires.” Fans on X agree: “Imanaga’s splitter is voodoo. Lock him up before the Dodgers do!”
The Contract Conundrum: Options, Risks, and Rivals
Imanaga’s pact includes a $15.25 million player option for 2026 and a $57 million club option for 2027–2028, vesting on 100 innings pitched—met in 2025 despite the IL stint. As a restricted free agent, he can’t bolt without Chicago’s blessing, but Hoyer must weigh tendering a qualifying offer (projected $22–25 million) against long-term security. A multi-year extension could run 4–6 years, $80–100 million, per MLB Trade Rumors, factoring his age and NPB pedigree.
The Cubs’ calculus is tight: Payroll at $180 million (with Tucker’s $401M projection looming) limits splurges, especially with free agents like Rea and potential extensions for Crow-Armstrong. Declining the option risks a Type A free agency circus, drawing suitors like the Dodgers (Yamamoto’s stablemates) or Yankees (rotation rebuild). “It’s not just dollars—it’s innings, health, and fit,” an insider told The Athletic. “Shōta’s consistent, but that fade? It spooks.”
| Scenario | Pros | Cons | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exercise Club Option ($57M/2 yrs) | Locks in value; stabilizes rotation | High AAV ($28.5M); no upside if he rebounds | High (70%) |
| Long-Term Extension (4–6 yrs, $80–100M) | Secures prime years; builds around Imanaga | Payroll strain; age-35 decline risk | Medium (50%) |
| Qualifying Offer/Tender | Retains draft pick if lost; tests market | QO rejection leads to free agency chaos | Low (30%) |
| Let Him Walk | Frees cap for Tucker/Bellinger | Loses ace; rebuilds rotation from scratch | Very Low (10%) |
Fan Frenzy and Future Stakes
The revelation has Cubs Nation in a fervor. On X, #KeepShota trends: “He bowed to Wrigley after every K—loyalty like that? Pay the man!” versus pragmatic takes: “$57M for a guy who coughed up 10 bombs in September? Pass—build around Horton.” Imanaga, ever stoic, hinted at his bond: “Chicago gave me a stage. I want to finish what we started.”
For a Cubs team eyeing 2026 contention in a loaded NL Central (Brewers, Cardinals lurking), Imanaga’s fate is pivotal. Pair him with a healthy Steele and breakout Horton (2.67 ERA), and Chicago’s staff rivals the Dodgers’. Lose him? It’s back to the drawing board, with trade rumors for Dylan Cease swirling.
Conclusion
Shōta Imanaga’s future isn’t just a contract call—it’s the Cubs’ declaration of intent. Retain the Hawk, and Wrigley hums with Japanese precision; let him slip, and the rotation wobbles. As Hoyer crunches numbers, one truth endures: In a city of second chances, Imanaga’s already earned his. Cubs fans, the splitter’s spinning—will Chicago grip it tight?
