Houston’s strategic handling of three key prospects ahead of the Rule 5 Draft could reshape the organization’s depth chart moving forward. DD
The Houston Astros had a few decisions to make before the upcoming Rule 5 draft.
The Houston Astros are coming off a season in which they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Heading into this offseason, Houston has plenty of roster decisions to make. Some of those decisions have Major League implications, while others have to do with planning for the future.
Framber Valdez recently declined the Astros’ qualifying offer. This is not surprising, as the qualifying offer was more of a formality than anything. He is not the only player Houston could possibly lose this offseason, though.
The Rule 5 draft will take place on December 10th during the Winter Meetings. For those unaware, prospects signed at 18 years old or younger need to be added to the 40-man roster within five seasons. Prospects signed at 19 years old or older have four seasons to be added to the 40-man roster. If these prospects are left off the 40-man, they become eligible to be taken by another MLB organization.
The catch to the whole draft is teams that make selections during the Rule 5 draft must add that player to their 26-man roster to begin the season. This makes decisions even harder, not only for the draft, but for who to protect.
Houston had quite a few decisions to make before the November 18th deadline. The Astros’ No. 5, No. 13, and No. 17 prospects were all eligible to be added to the Rule 5 draft pool.
Who Did the Astros Protect?
Miguel Ullola is the No. 5 prospect in the Astros’ organization. Adding him to the 40-man roster was a no-brainer. The right-handed pitcher was signed in 2021 out of the Dominican Republic. He is a pitcher the Astros are very excited about heading into next season.
The 23-year-old spent the entirety of 2025 in Triple-A. He made 28 appearances, including 23 starts. In those outings, Ullola threw 113.2 innings, allowed opponents to hit just .186 off him and he struck out 131 batters. His fastball reaches the upper-90s, while both of his breaking balls rank above average from scouts.
Ullola does have some command issues, and those need to be ironed out. He walked 78 batters this past year, and that is not sustainable for a starting pitcher. His arm is more than enough to be a starter, but he has to throw more strikes. Even if he has to be moved to the bullpen because of the command issues, Ullola would still be a weapon on the mound.
Who Was Left Unprotected?
Both Alimber Santa and Jose Fleury were left off the 40-man roster. That means the Astros will have their No. 13 (Santa) and 17 prospects (Fleury) up for grabs during the Rule 5 draft.
Santa was signed in 2020 before the pandemic hit. The right-hander has a live arm that can reach triple digits. However, he sits in the mid to upper-90s to throw more strikes. Much like Ullola, Santa has two breaking balls that grade above average from scouts. Unlike Ullola, he comes out of the bullpen.
This past year, Santa made 46 appearances, threw 70.0 innings, allowed just 46 hits, struck out 82 batters and walked 39. The command becomes a little bit of a problem with Santa, but there is no denying the arm talent. If a team wants to take a chance on a high-upside reliever in the Rule 5 draft, Santa could be taken.
Fleury signed with the Astros in 2021. He does not throw as hard as the other two, but he competes on the mound. What makes Fleury stand out among the rest is his changeup. Scouts gave his a cambio a grade of 60, which is his highest graded pitch.
This past year, Fleury spent time in Double and Triple-A. He dominated at the Double-A level, but could not find the same success with Sugar Land. He had a 1.82 ERA with Corpus Christie, but that shot up to 6.95 with Sugar Land. The right-hander is not much of a strikeout pitcher, and he caught too much of the plate a lot of the time in Triple-A.
With his lack of success in Triple-A, the Astros are most likely expecting him back in 2026. Fleury has some more developing to do before he is an MLB-ready pitcher.
