Matt Shaw’s Cubs Crossroads: The Rookie Phenom’s Future – Lock Him In or Trade for a Star?.vc
Chicago, October 29, 2025 – Matt Shaw was supposed to be the next big thing—a polished bat from Maryland with plus power and a cannon arm. In 2025, he arrived: A .285 average, .380 OBP, .520 slugging, 22 home runs, and 3.1 WAR in his rookie year, earning a Gold Glove nomination for his +12 DRS at third base. But as the Cubs lick their wounds from a 92-70 NLDS exit to Milwaukee, manager Craig Counsell’s bold proclamation—“Matt’s our guy at third for the next decade”—has ignited a firestorm. Is Shaw the steady anchor to build around, or should Jed Hoyer flip him for a marquee free agent like Alex Bregman or Matt Chapman? With Swanson’s slump and the infield’s inconsistencies exposed, Shaw’s future isn’t just a question—it’s a referendum on the Cubs’ path to glory.
Shaw’s 2025 Arrival: From Prospect to Protégé
Drafted 13th overall in 2022, Shaw rocketed through the minors: .285/.380/.520 with 20 HRs at Triple-A Iowa in 2024, showcasing a 112 wRC+ and 15% barrel rate. His 2025 MLB debut was seamless: 148 games, 22 HRs, 78 RBIs, and a 3.1 WAR that ranked him top-5 among third basemen under 25. His plate discipline shone—a .380 OBP and 18% K-rate—while his defense was wizardry: 85th-percentile arm strength and highlight-reel dives that saved 12 runs. “Matt’s not a rookie—he’s a revelation,” Counsell gushed post-NLDS, crediting his “bat-to-ball mastery and infield IQ.”
Key moments defined him: A walk-off homer vs. the Brewers on July 4 and a 4-for-5, 2-HR explosion in the Wild Card clincher vs. San Diego. On X, #ShawToTheMoon trended: “Gold Glove arm, 22 bombs—Matt’s our third base forever!” one fan thread hit 12K likes.
Counsell’s Bold Bet: Shaw as the Cornerstone
Counsell’s October 28 Marquee Network interview was unequivocal: “Matt Shaw is our third baseman for the next 8–10 years. We don’t need to shop—he’s the answer.” It came amid a September slump where Shaw hit .240 in 20 games, fueling trade rumors for Bregman (free agent, 3.1 WAR, .290/.372/.512) or Chapman (opt-out, 3.5 WAR, .275/.345/.505). Counsell pushed back: “He’s 23, hits .285 with power, fields like a vacuum. Big names? We’ve got one in-house.”
Shaw’s reply? Steady resolve. “Craig’s faith means the world,” he told reporters. “I’m not chasing headlines—I’m chasing rings.” His clubhouse presence—mentoring Drew Pomeranz and leading infield drills during Acuña’s injury—earned trust. But the debate simmers: Shaw’s .520 SLG is solid, but his 18% K-rate and occasional third-strike chases pale against Bregman’s playoff pedigree.
The Counterargument: Trade for a Veteran Boost?
Skeptics counter: Shaw’s youth is a virtue, but his 112 wRC+ trails Chapman’s 118 and Bregman’s 120. With Swanson’s .244 slump and Hoerner’s trade value, flipping Shaw could net Bregman ($25M AAV) or Chapman ($20M) for instant impact—3+ WAR and defensive anchors. “Shaw’s promising, but Bregman’s battle-tested,” ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted, sparking 8K replies. Internal options like Michael Busch (.260 at 1B) falter at third, and the Cubs’ 18th-ranked runs (4.27 per game) crave a proven slugger.
| Player | 2025 AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | WAR | Projected AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Shaw | .285/.380/.520 | 22 | 3.1 | Arb $2M (2026) |
| Alex Bregman | .290/.372/.512 | 25 | 3.1 | $25M FA |
| Matt Chapman | .275/.345/.505 | 27 | 3.5 | $20M opt-out |
The Verdict: Shaw’s the Future – But…
Counsell’s bold endorsement leans Shaw as the long-term third base solution—affordable, homegrown, and ascending. But Hoyer’s offseason calculus demands pragmatism: Pair Shaw with a vet like Chapman for 2026 playoffs, or trust the kid to lead a youth surge? Fans on X divide: “Shaw’s our guy—#ShawToTheMoon!” vs. “Bregman now, rings tomorrow!” Cubs Nation, the crossroads calls: Shaw’s arm is steady, but is it championship-caliber yet?
