Cubs’ Perfect Trade Proposal for Cardinals Star Nolan Arenado: A Blockbuster Rivalry Shake-Up to Cement North Side Dominance?.vc
In the cutthroat arena of the National League Central, where the Chicago Cubs sit just three games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals as of late May 2025, the unthinkable is bubbling to the surface: a blockbuster intra-division trade for Nolan Arenado, the 10-time Gold Glove third baseman whose $260 million pedigree could transform Wrigley’s hot corner from a question mark into a fortress. With rookie Matt Shaw struggling (.215/.290/.355 in 40 games, per early-season woes) after a demotion and recall, the Cubs are reportedly prioritizing infield upgrades, per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma. The Cardinals, mired in a rebuild under incoming GM Chaim Bloom and desperate to shed Arenado’s remaining $74 million (two years post-2025, with $10M owed by Colorado), see this as a pathway to prospect replenishment—despite the rivalry’s venom.
This isn’t pie-in-the-sky speculation; MLB Network’s Dan O’Dowd called it a “deal that should happen,” envisioning Arenado’s elite glove (.285 career AVG, 341 HRs, 1,132 RBIs) stabilizing Chicago’s lineup alongside Kyle Tucker’s outfield splash. ClutchPoints’ Garrett Karman dubs it the “Cubs’ perfect Nolan Arenado trade proposal,” a bold pivot that boosts defense and power while granting St. Louis youth infusion. Per ESPN’s Buster Olney, with Chicago’s payroll dipping below $200M amid ownership critiques, Arenado perches as the “player who becomes available” to seize a winnable division.
The Perfect Proposal: Prospects for a Proven Star
The Cubs’ farm system—ranked top-5 by MLB Pipeline—holds the keys, allowing president Jed Hoyer to dangle high-upside pieces without gutting the core. Drawing from aggregated proposals across sources, the “perfect” package centers on two top-100 position players and a pitching prospect, balancing immediate talent with long-term value for St. Louis’s rebuild.
Proposed Trade: Cubs Receive Nolan Arenado; Cardinals Receive OF Owen Caissie, C Moises Ballesteros, and RHP Jaxon Wiggins
| Player | Position | Age | 2025 Stats (Minors/MLB) | Prospect Rank (MLB Pipeline) | Why It Fits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado (To CHC) | 3B | 34 | .280/.335/.450, 12 HR, 45 RBI (.669 OPS, career-low dip) | N/A | Elite defender (10 GG), RHB power bat; mentors Shaw, platoons at 3B/1B; $26M AAV through 2027. |
| Owen Caissie (To STL) | OF | 22 | .285/.380/.480, 18 HR (Triple-A) | No. 37 overall | Power-speed corner OF with .820 OPS; immediate Memphis contributor, future RF. |
| Moises Ballesteros | C | 21 | .295/.365/.495, 15 HR (Double-A) | No. 62 overall | Switch-hitting backstop with pop; bolsters Cards’ catching pipeline post-Willson Contreras. |
| Jaxon Wiggins | RHP | 23 | 3.45 ERA, 120 K in 100 IP (High-A) | No. 98 overall | High-velocity arm (98 mph FB); adds pitching depth amid STL’s rotation rebuild. |
(Data aggregated from FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline; package per ClutchPoints and Athlon Sports variations, emphasizing “top prospects without the crown jewels” like Pete Crow-Armstrong.)
This haul gives St. Louis “two top-100 position prospects and an advanced pitching talent,” per analyst Jon Conahan, aligning with their youth pivot while shedding $52M in salary relief (post-2025). For Chicago, Arenado’s postseason pedigree (2019 WS ring) and .695 OPS (despite 2025 slump) offer a “change of scenery” boost, per Wright—elevating a third base that’s “cycled through options like Matt Shaw… with limited results.” Shaw, Chicago’s faith-fueled rookie amid personal trials, could shift to utility or super-utility, preserving his development.
Why Now? Cubs’ Urgency Meets Cardinals’ Fire Sale
The Cubs’ 2025 hot start (12-9 early, per reports) belies infield instability: Shaw’s slump prompted a minor-league stint, and veterans like Justin Turner offer only “below-average” stability. Hoyer, criticized for payroll restraint, chased Alex Bregman before his Red Sox pact—now Arenado fills that void, per Olney: “Ownership has been taking criticism… so if a player becomes available… Nolan Arenado, perhaps?”
St. Louis, per MLB.com’s executive poll, views Arenado as a top trade chip amid their 2025 mediocrity—despite offseason vetoes (e.g., Astros deal, per The Athletic). Arenado’s openness to first base (per recent reports) enhances his versatility, easing the deal. Per Karman, “The Cardinals helping push the Cubs over the edge… doesn’t seem likely,” but financial desperation (Bloom’s arrival) could override rivalry.
Risks abound: Arenado’s age-34 decline (.669 OPS, lowest as a Cardinal) and $74M anchor, per BVM Sports; Cubs’ reluctance to arm rivals with prospects like Caissie (potential RF heir). Yet, per O’Dowd, “A change of scenery… would be very good for him,” unlocking 2023’s .850 OPS form.
NL Central Ripple Effects: Echoes of Epic MLB Sagas
This deal wouldn’t just swap jerseys—it’d echo the Braves’ $150M Schwarber splash (replacing Ozuna) or Dodgers’ $400M Tucker pursuit, per ongoing rumors, signaling arms-race escalation. Like Chris Sale’s family-vowed redemption from Red Sox despair to Atlanta Cy Young bliss, Arenado could rediscover glory at Wrigley—mentoring Shaw, whose grief-fueled resilience mirrors Sale’s dinner-table promise to son Rylan. For Kerry Wood’s rumored coaching return, it’d add veteran gravitas to a rotation eyeing Framber Valdez amid Cubs’ surge.
Per Newsweek’s Andrew Wright, “A trade… could benefit Chicago greatly and allow Shaw to take a backseat to one of the game’s greatest.” As the deadline nears, this “signal that both organizations are embracing their competitive timelines,” per Karman, could ignite October fireworks—or deepen the Cubs-Cards chasm
