Bills vs. Chiefs: What the Snap Counts Reveal About Kansas City’s Unexpected Offensive Shift.QQ
In a pivotal AFC contest, the Kansas City Chiefs dropped a 28-21 decision to the Buffalo Bills — and now enter their Week 10 bye.
Let’s look at how the Kansas City used its players.
Starters (offensive): TE Noah Gray, LT Jaylon Moore, LG Kingsley Suamataia, C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, RT Jawaan Taylor, TE Travis Kelce, WR Xavier Worthy, WR Rashee Rice, QB Patrick Mahomes and RB Kareem Hunt.
Starters (defensive): DE Michael Danna, DL Jerry Tillery, DT Chris Jones, DE George Karlaftis, LB Nick Bolton, LB Drue Tranquill, DB Trent McDuffie, CB Jaylen Watson, CB Nohl Williams, S Bryan Cook and S Chamarri Conner.
Did not play: QB Gardner Minshew.
Inactive: CB Kristian Fulton, RB Isiah Pacheco, WR Jalen Royals, TE Jared Wiley, RB Elijah Mitchell, OL C.J. Hanson and T Josh Simmons.
The big takeaway
Tight end Noah Gray recorded his lowest offensive snap rate of the season (38%), while starting tight end Travis Kelce set a season high (91%), including 97% of the passing snaps.
In other words, the Chiefs ended the game with a high volume of plays out of light personnel — that is, featuring just one tight end — and that load fell as heavily on Kelce as it has all season.
It’s a disappointing trend against a Bills’ defense that wants to play in lighter personnel. It appeared Kansas City started the game with a good balance of play-calls featuring multiple tight ends, but the negative game script apparently forced the Chiefs’ hand.
Instead of countering Buffalo’s preferred defensive alignment, Kansas City limited heavier personnel packages — even on running plays, where Gray was on the field just 60% of the time. That’s second-lowest rate since the first quarter of the season.
Week 4 is a sensible mile marker for the Chiefs’ offense: wide receiver Xavier Worthy returned to the lineup, allowing the offense to look more like we expect. From that point on, there have been two times that Gray’s snaps dropped and Kelce’s spiked: Week 9 in Buffalo and the Week 5 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
In that same breath, the highest snap rate Gray has seen this season (76%) came in the dominant, 30-17 win over the Detroit Lions. He lined up for 86% of the team’s running plays in that game, a drastic difference from the two losses.
Offensive takeaways
Wide receiver Xavier Worthy matched his season-high snap rate (84%) on offense, being on the field for 87% of Kansas City’s passing plays; he led all Chiefs’ receivers in both categories. Since returning to the field in Week 4, Worthy has been on the field for at least 71% of the passing plays each game, with that rate ramping up over the last two weeks alongside the return of wide receiver Rashee Rice.
But Worthy has not earned more than 53 yards from scrimmage in any game since returning with 121 yards against the Baltimore Ravens. Against the Bills, Worthy managed only 30 yards on four touches despite playing the number of snaps a true number-one wide receiver would.
In the weeks to come, it will be worth monitoring any change in Worthy’s production or snap count.
Defensive takeaways
Defensive tackle Chris Jones played only 77% of the defensive snaps on Sunday, including just 69% of the running plays. The only two games in which Jones was in for a lower rate were the blowout victories over the Las Vegas Raiders and the Ravens, when he came off the field early. The same can be said about his run-defense snap rate, although he dipped to 68% in the season opener as well.
It was clear that recently-signed defensive tackle Mike Pennel made a difference in relieving Jones. Pennel played 31% of snaps in his first opportunity back with the Chiefs; he was on the field for 46% of the Chiefs’ snaps against the run.
