The Cowboys’ Week 5 Clash With the Jets Could Hinge on Three Keys—Starting With a Relentless Scramble Defense
The Dallas Cowboys seem to be riding high following their 40-40 tie against the heavily favored Green Bay Packers last week. Their 1-2-1 record is nothing to write home about but it is a record that firmly keeps them in the postseason hunt.
Facing the winless New York Jets in Week 5, the Cowboys can’t afford another notch outside the win column. The schedule gets treacherous as temperatures cool, so wins must be seized whenever prime opportunities such as these present themselves.
Rest assured, the Jets won’t be rolling over for anyone anytime soon. Aaron Glenn is still trying to put his stamp on his new team and that stamp is full of grit and determination. Nothing should be seen as easy for the one-win Cowboys. After all, they have an epically poor defense that makes teams like the Bears look like Super Bowl favorites. Dallas has to play this wisely if they want to win.
Strategic key No. 1: defend the scramble
No quarterback tucks the ball and scrambles quite like Justin Fields. At 23%, the Jets QB leads the NFL in scramble rate under pressure. Like Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, and Jalen Hurts who are all scrambling at a rate of over 17%, he trusts his legs far more than he trusts his arm and/or reads downfield.
That’s unlikely to change Sunday when Fields faces the Cowboys porous defense. The Cowboys defense struggled against two of noted scramblers above already. Hurts collected +0.7 EPA on a 100 percent success rate and against Williams, the Cowboys gave up +0.4 EPA for a 100% success rate on the ground.
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The Cowboys will have their work cut out for them defending Justin Fields on the scramble. As a QB who often trusts his legs more than his arm, he’s going to be tucking and running a lot in Week 5 pic.twitter.com/Sptmuttv8X
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) October 3, 2025
Fields, a far superior runner than both, is eyeing the opportunity to do the same against the Cowboys defense.
It will be up to Matt Eberflus and the Cowboys defense to minimize that damage. Zone coverage will obviously help since coverage players will be facing the QB at most times, which is good for Dallas because they play more zone coverage than anyone in the NFL.
The Cowboys also need to maintain lane discipline, avoid over pursuit, hold up at the front of the pocket and possibly even spy the QB in third down situations. Corralling a mobile QB is easier said than done but the Cowboys have to give it their full attention.
Strategic key No. 2: Cowboys’ short-intermediate passing game
If there is one area of coverage the Jets are strong at its deep coverage so it would be in the Cowboys’ best interests to stick to short and intermediate passes on Sunday. Short passes to running backs and tight ends will demand run after the catch and Jake Ferguson and company haven’t been very strong in this facet in 2025. But if the Jaydon Blue makes his debut as some people suspect, this would be a great way to highlight his speed and game breaking ability without asking him to hit all his assignments in pass protection.
The Cowboys can’t abandon deep passes completely and need to keep the defense honest when opportunities present themselves, but they should focus most of their attention on the short and intermediate game.
Strategic key No. 3: defend big personnel groups
New York only runs 12 personnel (2 TEs) 18.7% of the time but when they do they lead the league in EPA at +0.29. At 8.3% the Jets are top 10 in 21 personnel usage (2 RBs) and similarly impressive in their results, averaging +0.25 in EPA. Oddly, the Cowboys haven’t been very strong against either of the larger personnel groups even though they often operate out of a 4-3 base defense. They have to change that in Week 5.
This is very likely a game where the linebackers are more fixated on stopping the run than defending the pass since the Jets’ pass rate over expected ranks last in the league. The front seven will be tasked with matching up against bigger personnel which might actually work in the Cowboys’ favor given their issues in the secondary.
