The question of whether the Chicago Cubs should pursue Cody Ponce (the main character in this free-agent question) is one of the most intriguing “bounce-back” opportunities this offseason. Ponce, a former Pirates pitcher who struggled in his first MLB stint, just dominated the KBO and is seeking a return to the Majors.1
For the Cubs, who are always looking for cost-effective pitching depth and high-upside gambles, Ponce presents a tantalizing combination of risk and reward.
🇰🇷 The Argument For Signing Cody Ponce
Ponce’s 2025 campaign in the KBO (Korean Baseball Organization) was nothing short of historic and has completely changed his market value.2
| Stat Category | 2025 KBO Season (Hanwha Eagles) | MLB Outlook |
| Dominance | 17-1 record, 1.89 ERA, 1.8 WHIP | Won the KBO Triple Crown (Wins, ERA, Strikeouts) (Source 3.1, 4.1). |
| Strikeout Power | 252 strikeouts in 180.2 innings (12.5 K/9) | Set a new KBO single-season strikeout record, suggesting a significant improvement in swing-and-miss stuff (Source 3.1, 4.1). |
| Stuff Upgrade | Fastball velocity now sits 94-98 mph, up from 93.2 mph in MLB (Source 2.2). | Gained velocity and added a swing-and-miss splitter/kick changeup (Source 2.2, 2.3). |
| Durability | Made 29 starts and threw 180.2 innings in 2025 (Source 3.1). | Proven durability, which the Cubs desperately need for the backend of the rotation. |
The Bottom Line: Ponce is not the same pitcher the Pirates released.3 He’s a new, harder-throwing pitcher with a legitimate five-pitch mix and proven success against top-tier foreign competition.4 He is projected to receive a multi-year deal, potentially topping the 5$\text{\$15M}$ contract Erick Fedde received upon his KBO return (Source 2.2).6
🚩 The Argument Against Signing Cody Ponce
There are legitimate reasons for caution, which the Cubs’ front office will weigh heavily before making a large financial commitment.
- Past MLB Performance: His 755.1 innings in the Majors (2020-2021) were poor, posting a 5.86 ERA and 1.54 WHIP (Source 3.4, 4.6).11 While his stuff has improved, this small sample size remains a warning.
- The NPB Struggles: His time in Japan (NPB) was mixed.12 After throwing a no-hitter in 2022, he struggled badly in 2024 with a 6.72 ERA in 67 innings, suggesting his success isn’t entirely linear (Source 1.1).15
- Mechanical Questions: Scouting reports indicate that he still has mechanical inconsistencies (especially from the stretch) that could be exposed by elite MLB hitting, which has led to a projected 4.64 ERA and 4.47FIP by FanGraphs (Source 3.2, 4.3).
🎯 BCB Recommendation: Sign Him to a Mid-Tier Deal
The Cubs finished with a 92-70 record in 2025, and their primary need is an elite frontline starter.17 Ponce is not that. However, he is a perfect target for the mid-tier spending bracket:
The Cubs should be aggressive but cautious, targeting Ponce for a three-year, $20-25 million contract. He represents the highest-upside KBO-MLB gamble in years, and if his new velocity and splitter translate, he could be an extremely valuable, cost-controlled mid-rotation arm.
He fits the Cubs’ need for depth and a swing-and-miss profile, making him a worthwhile risk, provided they also land a true ace like Dylan Cease or sign a premium free agent.
