Oct 26, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) runs for a gain during the second half against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sean Thomas-Imagn Images Sean Thomas-Imagn Images
The 49ers travel to New York with a game plan that probably looks like the Atlanta game: run and run some more. Kyle Shanahan set a goal of 40 carries in that game, so he probably has something similar in mind for New York. The Giants allow a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry, a league-worst 6.7 on outside runs.
It’s time for Christian McCaffrey to eat, but running in high volume on the most dangerous turf in the NFL is high risk. MetLife has ended many a season, taking out Nick Bosa back in the day. With McCaffrey on a franchise record pace for touches, Shanahan would be wise to apply some caution by distributing carries, but he’s yet to do so.
49ers on Offense
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McCaffrey left, right, and center. While Trent Williams didn’t play well in pass protection last week, he had his best run blocking game of the season, grading out at 92.4 according to PFF. McCaffrey running left behind Williams and George Kittle has been a staple for years and it will need to be in this matchup.
Mac Jones gets the start. While Brock Purdy practiced this week, coming off injury to play against the Giants defensive line on this field isn’t the best idea.
For the third straight week, Jones will be asked to get the ball out quickly against one of the league’s best defensive lines. A steady diet of short passes and screens to McCaffrey and Kittle should keep the chains moving. Once again, no Ricky Pearsall in this game. The run game should help set up play action, and Jones should have open receivers with the Giants’ starting corners out.
Shanahan says he expects Jauan Jennings to stay with the team past the trade deadline. It will be interesting to see if Jennings is showcased in this game.
The heart of the Giants defense is their excellent front four. They are 13th in sacks and blitz rate%. With four highly capable pass rushers upfront, the Giants are free to deploy the back seven creatively. Brian Burns is banged up and his status is questionable; Abdul Carter leads all rookies in pressures with 32.
New York is vulnerable in the red zone, 6th worst in touchdown percentage against at 68.0%.
Giants on Offense
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No Malik Nabers, no Cam Skattebo, rookie QB Jaxson Dart is missing his best two weapons. Second-year back Tyrone Tracy Jr. takes over. He ran for a long gain of 31 against Denver, but last week Philadelphia held him in check with 10 carries for 39 yards.
Wan’Dale Robinson is the top WR target. He had six catches and over 80 yards in two straight games, but then the Eagles shut him down with four catches for 48 last week. He should rebound with the Niners struggling to generate pressure on the QB and the secondary weak at safety.
Dart is a capable scrambler. The Niners will be helped by the return of defensive end Clelin Ferrell, who is adept at setting the edge wide. Dart has run for four touchdowns and nearly 200 yards on 43 carries. He has a long of 20.
New acquisition Keion White plays in his Niner debut, with Robert Saleh hoping White can put some heat on Dart. The Niners rank last in the league in pressure rate at a woeful 10.8%.
Prediction (3-5)
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I keep picking the Niners to lose the game with too many injured players out and win the following week. They’ve done the opposite. They need to win this one; the Giants are one of the league’s worst teams. If the Niners are to stay in the thick of the playoff race, they need wins against inferior teams to leverage the weaker schedule.
The strategy is straightforward here. A heavy mix of running, but don’t keep pressing the CMC easy button on this surface, play everybody. Jones should be able to use play action to create some time for a few deep shots, particularly with the Giants’ starting corners out. Kendrick Bourne should have a solid game. If Shanahan’s initial script drives are successful, the Niners can win as they are accustomed to, build a lead and run it out.
