The Buffalo Bills face off against their intraconference tormentors this weekend, hosting the Kansas City Chiefs in the latest installment of the two teams’ storied rivalry. Since the 2020 season, Buffalo and Kansas City have met a total of nine times, with the Bills winning four of the games and the Chiefs winning five. All four of Buffalo’s victories have come in regular-season games, while Kansas City has won all four playoff matchups between the two teams in that span.
While the stakes won’t be as high as they were the last time these two teams met in the AFC Championship Game back in January, there are fairly large playoff implications for this matchup. The Chiefs would take their fourth loss of the season, damaging their chase for yet another AFC West Division title. It would also make another No. 1 seed highly unlikely. If the Bills lose this week, it will be their third loss of the season, and they already trail a tough New England Patriots squad in a quest for their sixth-straight AFC East crown.
If the Bills want to come out on top this week, they’ll have to slow a slew of Chiefs. Here are five Kansas City players to watch this week.
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QB Patrick Mahomes
The book on beating Mahomes is similar to beating most elite quarterbacks: pressure him up the middle using only your front four and you’re in good shape. The problem, of course, is doing that. If it were easy, then everyone could do it.
Losing defensive tackle Ed Oliver is going to hurt the Bills in their pursuit of this goal, but the additions of defensive end Michael Hoecht and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi give the Bills a solid, deep defensive line rotation overall. If Buffalo can impact Mahomes early in the game, it could lead to some happy feet and rushed decisions. They’ll need their newcomers (especially Hoecht and Joey Bosa) to provide the pass-rush juice that previous Bills defenses couldn’t provide.
If they can slow Kareem Hunt and Kansas City’s running game, it will allow that defensive front to go all-in on attacking the game’s best quarterback. Slowing Mahomes is essential to victory this weekend.
WR Xavier Worthy
Rashee Rice is clearly Kansas City’s top receiver, but head coach Andy Reid loves to remind people just how smart he is. If he has the chance to feature Worthy, whom the Chiefs acquired via a draft-pick trade with Buffalo, then he’s going to do it.
Preventing Worthy from making splash plays will force the Chiefs to go on long, sustained drives. The second-year man isn’t an elite wideout, but he does have elite speed, and speed kills, especially when a team like the Bills misses tackles in the middle level. I could see some reverses or screens early on to test Buffalo’s gap integrity.
Worthy is the kind of guy who could make one man miss and turn a two-yard loss into a forty-yard gain. The Bills need to keep a lid on him this weekend.
DE George Karlaftis III
As great as the Chiefs’ offense is (and it is a machine) it’s my belief that their defense is even better. The numbers bear that out, as Kansas City has allowed the second-fewest points per game this season and the fourth-fewest yards per game this season.
Karlaftis is an outstanding pass rusher who has given the Bills problems before. He sets the edge well in the run game, has a ridiculous motor, and has enough athleticism to chase down Josh Allen while he scrambles. In the run game, Buffalo is going to use heavy packages to give James Cook blockers, but they might want to consider using some of those heavier personnel packages and going max-protect on play-action passes, especially early, to put doubt in the pass rush’s collective mind.
Karlaftis is a player deserving of double-teams, but the Chiefs have enough studs on the defensive line that you can’t double team all of them. He’ll likely be the responsibility of Spencer Brown for most of the night, but the Chiefs will use him on games and stunts up front, as well.
DT Chris Jones
Speaking of players who have been the bane of Buffalo’s existence, Jones is still elite, and he’s still a guy who can make a play whenever the Chiefs need a big one. Buffalo’s offensive line has been prone to confusion on some of the aforementioned stunts and games that opposing defenses have run, and Jones moves all around the defensive front. He can rush from the three-tech spot just as easily as he can from a nine-tech, and he might even start in one spot and loop around to another place entirely during the course of the play.
If defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a chess master, Jones is his queen, moving all over the board to destroy opponents when needed. The Bills will need to be aware of No. 95 on Sunday, and he’s the guy I’d double for most of the night.
LB Leo Chenal
Kansas City often uses a spy on Josh Allen — although they didn’t during the regular season last year, leading to Allen gaining 55 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Chenal is one of the more likely people to draw that “spy” assignment if the Chiefs use one.
Given that either Chenal or Nick Bolton will be tasked with following Allen, the Bills and offensive coordinator Joe Brady have to put them in jeopardy all game. Will they commit to Allen and leave a running back free to release for short passes? Will the Bills attack the short middle of the field on slants or drag routes? Can they give Chenal enough eye candy to make him think one thing before throwing a totally different play at him?
The worst thing that the Bills could do is keep things vanilla. They can’t give Chenal clean reads, and if he does spy, they need to take advantage of Kansas City pulling a player out of coverage. Chenal is a great football player, so he’s going to make some plays. The key for Buffalo is trying to take advantage of the scheme, manipulating it for their benefit.
